The Case for Kyler Murray

· Yahoo Sports

As the rumors and signs that Kyler Murray may sign with the Minnesota Vikings after he is released next week by the Arizona Cardinals heat up (the Vikings are the clear favorite to land Murray in betting markets), questions arise about Murray and his fit with the Vikings’ offense, his commitment to his craft, and ultimately whether he could have the type of success Sam Darnold had in Minnesota or whether he will be a disappointment.

Let’s take a closer look at what Kyler Murray would bring to the table for the Vikings.

Visit asg-reflektory.pl for more information.

A Complicated Past

At his best, Kyler Murray is a talented dual-threat playmaker as you can see from his 2024 and 2025 season highlight reels. But the former #1 overall pick in the 2019 draft, now 28, has also shown inconsistency and his behavior at times has caused some to question his commitment to the game and putting in the work to be the best at his position. This most infamously was reflected in the Cardinals adding minimum independent study time to his contract in 2022 that was later rescinded. Murray’s relationship with the Cardinals also seemed to have soured since he was extended in a 5-year, $230 million deal back in 2022. Ultimately that led to the Cardinals deciding to part ways with Murray, who will be released next week incurring a dead cap hit for the Cardinals of over $50 million. It’s always a red flag when a team who knows its quarterback best decides to incur that kind of dead money to release their former franchise quarterback.

But it also must be said that the Cardinals have been a dumpster fire of a franchise for most of Murray’s tenure in Arizona, with only one winning record in seven seasons under Kliff Kingsbury and Jonathan Gannon. The Cardinals have won four or fewer games in three of the last four seasons and the outlook for the franchise in a division with the Super Bowl champion Seahawks, Rams and 49ers isn’t particularly bright. The Cardinals have also ranked near the bottom in NFLPA rankings, including last in 2025 and second-to-last in the latest 2026 grades. Given that, it wouldn’t be surprising if Murray was less than enthusiastic in his work regime and began to tire of the Cardinals’ losing ways- and that became apparent to the franchise.

The question for Murray is whether a change of scenery will jump-start his career and lead to a renewed focus on mastering his craft and putting in the time and effort to make that happen. The Vikings may not be Super Bowl favorites at this point, but they are likely to have a top defense under Brian Flores (something Murray has never really had), a good offensive line and at least as good receiving weapons as he’s had in Arizona. All that matters because with an often-porous defense in Arizona, Murray was often put in poor game situations that make it more difficult to succeed.

Fit with the Vikings’ Offense

There is also some concern about Murray’s fit with Kevin O’Connell’s offense. One reason for this is because while at Arizona, Murray operated predominantly from the shotgun, rather than under-center, as O’Connell prefers to better disguise the play-action passes he likes to run. Murray operated from the shotgun formation on roughly 90% of his pass attempts according to Pro Football Reference. However, Murray’s passer rating and Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A) are both highest when operating under center. They are also higher with play-action compared to non play-action passes, although some of those play-action passes can occur from shotgun.

The other main concern schematically is that Murray has a comparatively low percentage of intermediate and deep throws, particularly over the middle of the field. O’Connell’s route patterns are often set to target receivers over the middle of the field at intermediate and deep depths. However, Murray’s lower percentage of throws to those areas of the field with Arizona is largely scheme-based and in part more recently due to the lack of a top running back. However, when you look at metrics like PFF grade and passer rating on throws to the intermediate and deep center of the field in 2024- his last full season- those were the two areas where his PFF grade and passer rating were the highest. So it’s not like he can’t make those throws, it’s just that given the Cardinals scheme, which was predominantly (65%-ish) short passing, he didn’t attempt those throws as much.

General Metrics

Looking at Kyler Murray’s general metrics in his last full season of 2024 (he only played 5 games in 2025 due to a foot injury), he ranks in the mid-teens or better among many metrics. PFF grade (8th). Passer Rating (15th). Adjusted Completion Percentage (accuracy) 15th. Turnover worthy play rate (8th). Big-Time Throw rate (8th). EPA/play (13th). Success rate (8th). Completion % Over Expectation (13th). Overall, Murray was at least an average starting quarterback by most major metrics, if not above average.

If you contrast Murray with where Sam Darnold was prior to signing with the Vikings, its a pretty stark difference. Darnold’s metrics were generally much lower.

Whereas Murray’s metrics in 2024 were very similar to Darnold’s in 2024 with the Vikings.

Can Murray Improve in Minnesota?

Given that Murray has performed better than Darnold prior to coming to Minnesota, the question becomes can Murray improve over his performance with the Cardinals? Certainly Murray would land in a better situation than he had in Arizona, and perhaps with renewed enthusiasm toward improving his craft with a team that has better prospects for making the playoffs than his former team, with better coaching and team environment as well.

There would be a transition to a new offense and team- and sometimes those changes make changing teams more difficult for some players- but it also stands to reason that with a better situation, including better coaching and team around him, that Murray could jumpstart his career in Minnesota and lift his performance into the top ten in the league.

What a Potential Murray Signing Means for J.J. McCarthy

Should the Vikings sign Kyler Murray, he would almost certainly become the starter for the Vikings in 2026 and potentially beyond. If Murray did in fact become the starter and had Darnold-like success or better with the Vikings in 2026, it would be difficult to imagine the Vikings making the same mistake with Murray as they did with Darnold.

In any case, a Murray signing would most likely postpone McCarthy’s chance at becoming the starter until the 2027 at the earliest (barring injury to Murray), which would be McCarthy’s last of his rookie contract. The Vikings would not exercise their fifth-year option in McCarthy’s contract in that scenario either. Bottom line, a Murray signing means McCarthy’s chance of eventually becoming the Vikings’ starter becomes more and more remote.

Murray to the Vikings Not a Done Deal Yet

For all the hype and speculation and rumors and odds, Kyler Murray has not signed a contract with the Minnesota Vikings yet. There will be other interest parties especially considering Murray will play for the veteran minimum given the offset language in his contract with the Cardinals. Those interested parties could include the Jets, Dolphins, Falcons, Steelers, Browns, Colts, and even the Rams. The Vikings remain the clear favorites, however.

Stay tuned.

Read full story at source