How much does experience matter for a rookie quarterback?
· Yahoo Sports
The Los Angeles Rams could be in the market to select a quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft. While Matthew Stafford could play for two more years, the Rams need to start thinking about what happens when their quarterback retires. That doesn’t mean they need to ignore building around Stafford for the sake of drafting a rookie quarterback. At the same time, taking a rookie and allowing them to develop has been proven to work in the development of young quarterbacks.
When teams typically draft young quarterbacks, the expectation is that the player will start right away. If that player doesn’t start right away, when the starting quarterback makes a mistake, the pressure from the fanbase only increases to play the rookie.
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As long as Stafford is under center, that outside pressure doesn’t exist. In the same way that there wasn’t pressure on the Green Bay Packers to play Aaron Rodgers when Brett Favre struggled or play Jordan Love when Rodgers struggled, the Rams wouldn’t have the exterior pressure to play a rookie when Stafford throws an interception. The same can be said when the Kansas City Chiefs brought along Patrick Mahomes.
Back in 2016, the Rams tried to bring Jared Goff along slowly. However, that was never going to work as he was the number one overall pick and the player ahead of Goff on the depth chart was Case Keenum. Keenum made it nine games before a four-game skid forced the Rams into playing Goff before he was ready.
It’s hard to establish causation and whether or not players such as Love, Rodgers, and Mahomes would have been good anyway. If teams can afford it, most rookie quarterbacks would benefit from sitting a year as less bad habits are developed due to rushing their process or being in a bad situation.
This is currently where the Rams are at. Again, they could sign or trade for a veteran quarterback after Stafford. However, if that player doesn’t meet expectations, the call for a rookie becomes almost immediate. While the Rams won’t be in position to draft Fernando Mendoza, they will be in position to draft Ty Simpson at 13th overall if they choose to do so.
After trading the 29th overall pick for Trent McDuffie, the 13th overall pick is almost a luxury. That’s not to say they should waste the pick or even me advocating for Ty Simpson. However, if the Rams are sold on him and have conviction, they should absolutely take him. As long as Stafford is the quarterback, it’s hard to say when will the Rams be picking inside the top-15 again. If things go as well as the sportsbooks suggest, the Rams will be picking 32nd overall next year in a good quarterback class. Would the Rams be in position to take a quarterback at 32nd overall? The likely answer is no.
Simpson obviously comes with his share of risks. If he didn’t he’d be a sure-fire pick inside the top-5 rather than a question mark in the first round. The most obvious concern is Simpson’s lack of experience. Simpson only played 27 games in college and only became a full-time starter during his final season. Anthony Richardson, Mitchell Trubisky, and Dwayne Haskins are the only quarterbacks to have 15 or fewer starts and be drafted in the first round. Bill Parcells had a set of guidelines for drafting a quarterback. Those rules included:
- Graduating College
- Be a three-year starter
- Have 23+ wins
- Complete 60+% of passes
- Have a 2:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio
Parcells himself didn’t necessarily stick to those rules, drafting Jeff Hostetler and Drew Bledsoe who didn’t meet the thresholds. It’s still a good rule of thumb though, essentially valuing experience, production, and success.
Even Jordan Love was essentially a three-year starter at Utah State, playing 38 games over three years. Mahomes was a two-year starter at Texas Tech, but still took over as a full-time starter midway through his first season. Meanwhile, Anthony Richardson started only one full season at Florida and has since struggled in the NFL. The same can be said about Mitchell Trubisky. However, Richardson started Week 1 his rookie season and Trubisky got his first start in Week 5. If Simpson isn’t starting right away, does that lack of experience matter?
Richardson was a raw quarterback who developed bad habits because he was asked to start right away. Trubisky was inexperienced and struggled to see blitzes because of that. That wouldn’t be the case for Simpson. Still, it makes the Simpson conversation difficult simply because there aren’t that many examples, let alone successful ones.
College experience doesn’t guarantee success, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. Brock Purdy was drafted with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but started 46 games over four years at Iowa State. He also led the Cyclones to four consecutive winning seasons.
Notable quarterbacks in the 2026 class to meet the Parcells threshold are:
- Carson Beck (Senior, three-year starter, 49 wins, completed 69.5% of his passes, 88:32 TD-INT ratio)
- Drew Allar (Senior, three-year starter, 35 wins, completed 63.2% of his passes, 61:13 TD-INT ratio)
- Cade Klubnik (Senior, three-year starter, 34 wins, completed 64% of his passes, 73:24 TD-INT ratio)
- Diego Pavia (Senior, four-year starter, 33 wins, completed 62.2% of his passes, 88:27 TD-INT ratio)
- Luke Altmeyer (Senior, three-year starter, 29 wins, completed 63.7% of his passes, 60:24 TD-INT ratio)
When it comes to the Rams specifically, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them take Allar or Klubnik in the middle rounds to back up Stafford. It’s possible that they like Simpson as his skillset matches what is required by a quarterback in a Shanahan system. At the same time, it’s hard to get past the lack of experience. Teams are betting on his traits at that point and Simpson’s traits aren’t necessarily elite.
The Rams may not draft Simpson or a quarterback entirely. However, when it comes to Simpson, his lack of experience is certainly a talking point. If the Rams value that experience and the classic Parcells rules of drafting a quarterback, waiting until the middle rounds might be the best answer.