NCAA Tournament Second Round Preview: Louisville vs. Michigan State

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BUFFALO, NEW YORK - MARCH 19: Isaac McKneely #10 of the Louisville Cardinals celebrates a three point basket against the South Florida Bulls during the first half in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at KeyBank Center on March 19, 2026 in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Ishika Samant/Getty Images) | Getty Images

6) Louisville Cardinals (24-10) vs. 3) Michigan State Spartans (26-7)

NCAA Tournament East Region Second Round

Game Time: 2:45 p.m.

Location: KeyBank Center: Buffalo, N.Y.

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Television: CBS

Announcers: Brian Anderson (play-by-play), Jim Jackson (analysis), Allie LaForce (sideline)

Favorite: Michigan State by 4.5

Series: Tied, 6-6

Last Meeting: Michigan State won, 73-64, on Dec. 1, 2021 in East Lansing, Mich.

Series History:

Projected Starting Lineups:

Louisville

  • G Adrian Wooley (6-4, 200, So.)
  • G Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195, Sr.)
  • G Ryan Conwell (6-4, 215, Sr.)
  • F J’Vonne Hadley (6-7, 210, Sr.)
  • C Vangelis Zougris (6-8, 240, Jr.)

Michigan State

  • G Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2, 190, So.)
  • F Coen Carr (6-6, 225, Jr.)
  • F Jordan Scott (6-7, 190, Fr.)
  • F Jaxon Kohler (6-9, 245, Sr.)
  • C Carson Cooper (6-11, 245, Sr.)

Statistics:

Michigan State’s Season to Date:

Relevant Videos:

About Michigan State:

There are some teams where you have to dig to figure out who they are. Michigan State isn’t one of them.

If you’ve watched a Tom Izzo team at any point over the last two decades, you already understand the foundation. They’re going to defend, they’re going to rebound like it matters more than anything else on the floor, and they’re going to make you earn every single possession. Nothing is accidental, and very little comes easy.

What’s interesting about this particular version of the Spartans is that it’s a little less star-driven and a little more about control.

The engine of everything is habitual crotch-kicker Jeremy Fears Jr., the nation’s leader in assists at 9.2 per game. Fears has improved dramatically as a scorer this season (15.2 ppg), but he still doesn’t dominate games as a scorer so much as he quietly dictates how they unfold. He plays with pace without rushing, gets Michigan State into the right actions, and consistently makes the simple, correct read. When he’s comfortable, the offense feels organized and patient. When he’s not, things can get a little more rigid and harder to generate.

That balance is important, because Michigan State isn’t built to overwhelm you with shot creation. They don’t have a roster full of guys who can go get a bucket whenever something breaks down. Instead, they rely on execution—screens set at the right angle, cuts made at the right time, and the ball moving until something opens up. It’s not flashy, but it’s effective when it’s working.

Where Sparty really shine is, per usual, on the glass. They lead the nation in defensive rebounding rate and are ninth in the same category on the offensive end. Louisville had the luxury of getting multiple cracks at scoring on many possessions against South Florida. That won’t be the case Saturday afternoon.

Tom Izzo’s vaunted frontcourt of Jaxon Kohler, Carson Cooper and human highlight reel Coen Carr leans into that identity. They are big, physical, active, and more concerned with positioning and effort than finesse. They’re not trying to out-skill you as much as outwork you, and if they succeed in doing that, the game starts to feel heavier with each possession.

The perimeter is where things can swing for Louisville. Michigan State will get decent looks because of how they run offense, but whether those shots fall tends to determine their ceiling. When they’re hitting from the outside, it forces defenses to stretch, which opens driving lanes and makes their halfcourt sets more dangerous. When they’re not, everything compresses. The paint gets crowded, post touches get tougher, and possessions can stall late in the clock.

There’s also a very real comfort level with playing in the mud. Michigan State doesn’t mind if a game turns into a grind. In fact, they’re usually better for it. Lower possession games, longer trips down the floor, more physical play—those are all conditions that play directly into their identity. They’re patient enough to live in that space without getting frustrated, which isn’t something every team can say.

The flip side is that they’re not at their best when the game speeds up. Teams that can push tempo, create early offense, and avoid getting stuck in halfcourt possessions can keep Sparty from fully settling in. The less time they have to set their defense and the fewer opportunities they get to crash the glass, the more you take away what they do best.

Some recent defensive issues were on full display in MSU’s last three games of the regular season, where they surrendered 90 points and 88 points in losses to Michigan and UCLA, and 87 points in a 4-point win over Rutgers.

Per usual, Michigan State is a team built around extremely solid college players, not future NBA stars. They are extremely solid, occasionally frustrating to watch, and consistently difficult to play against. They’re not built to blow you out with overwhelming talent, but they are very capable of wearing you down over 40 minutes.

And that’s really the defining trait. You don’t usually walk away from a Michigan State game feeling like they did anything spectacular. You just look up, realize you had to work for everything, and somehow they controlled more of the game than it felt like in the moment.

The good news in this one is that one of the things Michigan State isn’t is a team that likes to apply constant ball pressure and force tons of turnovers. The Spartans are forcing turnovers on 14.9 percent of their defensive possessions, just the 299th-best mark in the country. The ideal Izzo defensive possession is 28 seconds of effective guarding that ends with a difficult, contested shot from the outside and an easy defensive rebound.

Michigan State wants Louisville to take outside shots. Only 21 teams in Division-I are forcing their opponents to take a higher percentage of their field goal attempts from behind the three-point line. Obviously, this is something that could work in U of L’s favor if the Cards are creating at least halfway decent looks in halfcourt situations and … everyone say it with me … the shots are falling.

Against MSU, U of L’s best outside shooters have to be ready to pull when they have a sliver of space. You can’t afford to pass up a good shot in hopes of finding a great shot moments later, because more times than not against this team that great shot is never going to come.

Against a team that doesn’t really try to force turnovers and has some turnover issues of its own on offense, Louisville cannot afford to be as careless with the ball as they were on Thursday. In fact, winning the turnover battle should be an attainable goal and one Pat Kelsey’s team should aim to achieve.

Bring the same defensive effort you brought against USF, compete as much as you can on the glass, value the possession, win the battle for the free-throw supremacy, shoot the shit out of it from the outside, and let’s see what happens.

Notable:

—Louisville is making its 45th NCAA tournament appearance, and is making back-to-back appearances in the Big Dance for the first time since going to nine straight tournaments from 2007-2015.

—Louisville is 77-45 all-time in NCAA tournament games.

—Michigan State is making its 39th appearance in the NCAA Tournament and has an all-time record of 77-37 in the Big Dance.

—Michigan State is playing in its 28th consecutive NCAA Tournament. That streak is the longest active streak in the country and also tied for the longest in NCAA history (Kansas, 28, 1990-2017).

—Louisville is one win away from advancing to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2015.

—This is the 12th time in the last 14 tournaments that Michigan State has reached the second round, and the 16th in the last 19.

—Since 1998, the Spartans are 16-5 in their second NCAA Tournament game.

—Louisville and Michigan State have met in the NCAA Tournament four times before, with each team winning twice.

—In each of the last three tournament meetings between these two (2009, 2012 and 2015), the worse-seeded team has won the game.

—Louisville has not defeated a better-seeded team in the NCAA Tournament since the fourth-seeded Cardinals upset No. 1 seed Michigan State in the 2012 Sweet 16.

—Overall, the underdog has won four of the last six meetings between these two teams.

—Since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, Michigan State has advanced to the round of 32 on 27 occasions.

—MSU has an 18-8 record in round of 32 games since 1985, including 16-5 under current head coach Tom Izzo.

—Under Tom Izzo, Michigan State is 25-9 in the second game of an NCAA Tournament weekend. Seven of those nine losses have come to No. 1 seeds or eventual national champions.

—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey is 1-5 in NCAA Tournament games, and 0-6 against the spread in the Big Dance.

—Louisville’s NCAA Tournament win over Michigan State in 1959 sent the Cardinals to the first Final Four in program history.

—Louisville is 10-17 all-time in NCAA Tournament games when playing as the worse seed.

—Michigan State and Louisville have four common opponents this season. Both MSU (83-66) and U of L (96-88) beat Kentucky. MSU and U of L both beat Indiana, with Michigan State winning, 81-60, while Louisville won by a palindromic, 87-78. Both MSU and U of L also played Arkansas, with the Spartans beating the Razorbacks, 69-66, while the Cardinals lost, 89-80. They both lost to Duke, with MSU falling, 66-60, and U of L losing, 84-73 and 83-52.

—Louisville is 3-2 all-time in neutral site games against Michigan State.

—Michigan State forward Kaleb Glenn is a Louisville native who began his college career with the Cardinals. He is sitting out this season with a torn patellar tendon.

—A second round meeting between MSU and Louisville will be the earliest meeting in the NCAA Tournament between the pair, with previous matchups coming in three Regional Finals in 1959, 2009 and 2015, and one Regional Semifinal, in 2012.

—Louisville is a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time in program history. The Cards are 7-3 all-time as a 6-seed. They advanced to the Sweet 16 in 1996, the Elite Eight in 1997 and the second round in 2007.

—Louisville is 4-1 all-time in NCAA Tournament games against 3-seeds.

—Louisville has won 28 of its last 39 games in the NCAA Tournament, advancing to the Elite Eight five times in its last 13 appearances.

—Louisville head coach Pat Kelsey has never faced Michigan State.

—Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo is 4-2 in games against Louisville.

—Louisville is 40-5 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading at halftime.

—Louisville is 0-9 under head coach Pat Kelsey when trailing by 5 points or more at halftime.

—Michigan State is 19-1 when leading at the half this season, and just 7-5 when trailing at the half.

—Michigan State has been outrebounded just three times this season. The Spartans are 1-2 in those games.

—Michigan State is 3-4 in games this season where it allows 80 points or more.

—Louisville is 5-1 in neutral site games so far this season.

—Louisville is 12-1 in Saturday games so far this season, and just 12-9 in games played on any other day of the week.

—Michigan State is 6-1 playing on Saturday this season.

—Louisville is 11-6 all-time in East Region games.

—Louisville has hit the 100-point mark six times in a season for the first time ever.

—Louisville is 49-0 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading with five minutes to play. The Cardinals are also 1-18 under Kelsey when trailing with five minutes to play.

—Louisville is 14-0 over the past 11 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal.

—Louisville is 122-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games.

—Louisville has won 167 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points.

Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Michigan State 77, Louisville 75









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