UFC Winnipeg’s best betting props, parlays and picks | Burns vs. Malott
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UFC Winnipeg is live this weekend (Sat., April. 18, 2026) at Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada and streaming on Paramount+. After the dizzying highs of UFC 327 last week, we’ve come back to earth with a thud on this card.
The event is filled with debut fighters and fighters coming off very long lay-offs. The main event features Canada’s best shot of title relevancy, with Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott. Burns is riding a long losing streak, while the Canadian (who is from very far away from Winnipeg) has won three straight.
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The co-main event is Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain in the Bantamweight division. Phillips is coming off both a loss and a long lay off. There’s lots of those guys, and girls, on this card like that.
Rounding out the main card is Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert, Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Karine Silva, Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young and Dennis Bazukja vs. Marcio Barbosa.
The “Prelims” are headlined by Julien LeBlanc vs. Robert Valentin. That’s a total newcomer against an 0-3 guy. The undercard also has the return of Tanner Boser, because why not? He fights someone called Gokhan Saricam.
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC Winnipeg Main Card Money Line Odds
Gilbert Burns (+245) vs. Mike Malott (-305)Burns continues his gatekeeper duties at UFC Winnipeg. That role has not gone very well for him so far. Last time out, in May, he was starched by Michael Morales (see it here). Before that Sean Brady, Jack Della Maddalena and Belal Muhammad all got past him to move onto bigger and better things.
Malott will be hoping to do the same. He’s won three in a row now. In October he beat Kevin Holland by unanimous decision, in a kinda weird fight. Before that he knocked out Charles Radtke (see it here) and took a decision over Trevin Giles. The last time he faced a gatekeeper, in Canada, he suffered a shock third round TKO loss to Neil Magny (see it here).
It’s hard to pick Burns to win anything at the moment, especially when UFC keeps setting him up with extremely dangerous fighters who get finishes. Burns is the prototype of a BJJ ace who can land with power and use his grappling in case of emergencies. That’s what Malott, the grappling coach at Team Alpha Male, can do, too. And he’s younger, bigger and less shop worn.
There’s no point in delaying the obvious here anymore, I fully expect Malott to get another big win on Canadian soil.
The point spread on this one is Malott -13.5 at -195. That looks ridiculous, but when you consider how versatile Malott is with his finishes and how Burns’ durability has declined (as he get sets to turn 40 in July) it makes a lot of sense.
I like the spread because I definitely see Malott getting the finish.
The round total is 2.5 rounds. With the under at -135. I like the under here, too, for the reasons I cited above.
For my best bet I’m going to go with that under. It’s the same odds as Malott by KO/TKO, so I might as well go for the added security on the under — since I feel it is more likely that Malott clubs and subs Burns quickly than I do that it goes long.
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-135)
Kyler Phillips (+130) vs. Charles Jourdain (-155)Phillips hasn’t been seen since he lost a unanimous decision to Lok Dog Vinicius Oliveira in July. Before that he lost to Rob Font (as a -455 favorite). Those bouts could have catapulted the MMA Lab product into the Bantamweight title picture. Instead, he’s now fodder for someone who the UFC likely wants to build up into an attraction in Canada.
Jourdain has looked very good since moving down in weight. He’s finished both Victor Henry and Davey Grant with his patented guillotine. He was chased from Featherweight with an uppercut KO at the hands of Jean Silva (see it here).
Jourdain seems very at home at Bantamweight and his signature flying knee and standing guillotine gives him a chance in any fight he’s in.
Phillips’ has decent striking with a good overhand right. A lot of his offense features level changing for takedowns, though. That could really play into Jourdain’s wheelhouse for his knee or guillotine.
Phillips really needs a win, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes out looking great and manages to ground Jourdain. But Jourdain is on a fantastic run right now, so I think he’s probably going to get this done.
Best bet: Charles Jourdain moneyline (-155)
Mandel Nallo (-180) vs. Jai Herbert (+150)Nallo earned a contract on Contender Series in September with a first round stoppage. He’s a longtime Bellator veteran who could never quite breakthrough in the title picture. He’s one of a handful of Tristar guys on the card, along with the aforementioned.
Herbert lost a split decision to Chris Padilla in his last fight. That was all the way back in March, 2025. We’ve all seen how good Padilla is since then. Herbert is 3-5-1 in UFC with wins over Kyle Nelson and Rolando Bedoya.
I know, most of us have never heard of Nallo. It seems strange to see him as the third highest placed guy on the card. He’s a fun fighter to watch, though, and has a lot of personality, too. He’s got great size at Lightweight and really fast hands. I think we might end up seeing him in some great Lightweight wars in the near future.
Herbert is a striker, but he’s a little too cautious to be drawn into a straight up fire fight.
Herbert is far more experienced and battle tested-than Nallo. He also has a little bit of reach working in his favor. I think Herbert might be too big a step up for Nallo, in his proper UFC debut.
I’m going for Herbert here, but I think this is a pretty close fight. I just think Herbert’s technical striking and cage craft might outweigh Nallo’s creativity.
Best bet: Jai Herbert moneyline (+150)
Jasmine Jasudavicius (-310) vs. Karine Silva (+250)Jasudavicius saw her five fight winning streak snapped by Manon Fiorot in October. In that classic y’all must of forget match Fiorot put away the Canadian with a first round knee (see it here). Jasudavicius complained about the stoppage, for what that’s worth. Before that Jasudavicius scored impressive wins over Jessica Andrade and Mayra Bueno Silva.
Silva lost a decision to Maycee Barber in December. Before that she beat Dione Barbosa. And before that she lost to the veteran Viviane Araujo. The Araujo loss snapped a nine fight winning streak for ‘Killer’.
I don’t think there was anything wrong with Jasudavicius’ loss to Fiorot. I think she was over zealous and got caught. That slice of humble pie might serve her well in this fight, though. She’s a better striker than Silva and her ground game should keep her safe from Silva’s leg attacks.
I doubt Jasudavicius finishes Silva, so I’ll take the over for marginally more appealing odds.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-298)
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Moises was knocked out cold by Jared Gordon in May (see it here). He’s now 8-7 in UFC. Though, he’s fought a real murderers’ row in the Octagon. He’s lost to Benoit Saint-Denis, Joel Alvarez, Beneil Dariush and, oh, Islam Makhachev. His best wins are over Michael Johnson, by ankle lock (see it here), and Melquizael Costa, by RNC.
Young lost his Contender Series bout in 2024. However, he was going against Quillan Salkilld. After that decision loss he was signed to fight Evan Elder, on short notice. He lost that bout by decision. He earned his first UFC win in August, taking a decision over Maheshate.
I don’t know what to make of Moises. Every time I think he’s going to do well, he gets smashed and when I count him out he grinds out a win. I think Young will be too active on the feet for him and too good defensively to get taken down a bunch. So I should pick Moises, right?
Nah, I’ll stick with Young, whose striking forced Salkilld to wrestle. He should be able to rack up a lot of shots on Moises, who absorbs 4.08 sig. strikes a minute and only lands 2.48.
Best bet: Gauge Young moneyline (-130)
Dennis Buzukja (+370) vs. Marcio Barbosa (-485)Buzukja hasn’t fought since 2024. He’s another fighter making a long awaited return at UFC Winnipeg. He lost his last bout, to Francis Marshall, be split decision. Before that he overwhelmed Connor Matthews for a third round TKO.
Barbosa capped off an impressive LFA run with a TKO win on Contender series last year. In LFA he went 3-1 with all stoppages. His loss was to the very good Gabriel Santos.
Barbosa is the biggest favorite on the card. I think that’s a little unfair to Buzukja, who is a decently well rounded guy. That being said, Marshall knocked Buzukja down with a short hook. And that’s all Barbosa throws.
I’ll take the under, even though the total is 1.5. Barbosa is a fast worker. He’s won his last four in the first round.
Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-166)
UFC Winnipeg ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Julien LeBlanc (+114) vs. Robert Valentin (-135)Valentin keeps getting work despite being winless since his run on The Ultimate Fighter. He lost the finale to Ryan Loder, after he got stuck in a crucifix, and then he lost to Torrez Finney in one of the most hilariously bad fights I’ve ever seen. In July he was given his wish to ‘bang, bro’ and that resulted in getting started by Ateba Gautier in just over a minute (see it here).
Leblanc is one of many fighters on this card making their UFC debut without any kind of exposure to the promotion’s feeder programs. I think that says a lot about what they think about this card. He’s 10-2 as a pro. The only recognizable org he’s fought in is LFA. He went 0-1 there, losing a decision to Damien Lapilus.
LeBlanc likes to takes guy down. So that should be enough to beat Valentin, based on what we’ve seen from him so far.
Best bet: Julien LeBlanc moneyline (+114)
Tanner Boser (+130) vs. Gokhan Saricam (-155)UFC has brought back Boser for this rare trip to Canada’s Prairies. Boser is from nearby Alberta. The 34 year-old was released by UFC in 2019 after going 5-5. His best wins over that time were finishes over Ovince Saint Preux (see it here) and Philip Lins (see it here). Among his losses are bouts to Ciryl Gane, Andrei Arlovski and Ilir Latifi (all by decision).
This is the first time Saricam will appear in an Octagon. He’s a long time Bellator veteran. During his time there he lost to the best fighter he ever faced (Oleg Popov). His most recent fight was a ground and pound victory over Hyago Silva in The Cage MMA.
Saricum smashed through the cans he fought in Bellator (below).
However, I don’t think he has much upside in UFC. But I think he might also be athletic enough to stay ahead of Boser and land big shots before he gets got.
Best bet: Gokhan Saricam moneyline (-155)
Melissa Croden (-155) vs. Daria Zhelezniakova (+130)Croden has been a fun addition to UFC since signing on last last year. In her debut she TKO’d Tainara Lisboa (see it here). In December she lost a spirited unanimous decision to Luana Santos. Croden is a former LFA champ. She lost her belt in that org to top current UFC contender Jacqueline Cavalcanti.
Zhelezniakova beat Melissa Mullins in her last fight, by decision. That June 2025 victory was revenge for her Ares FC loss to Mullins back in 2022. In September 2024 she was famously submitted, and then twerked on, by Ailin Perez (see it here).
Croden is an aggressive fighter that really pushes to cause damage and get the finish. Zhelezniakova just kind of goes through the motions.
I think Croden will win the numbers battle on significant strikes and that should be good enough for a decision.
Best bet: Melissa Croden moneyline (-155)
Mitch Raposo (+160) vs. Allan Nascimento (-192)Raposo is 1-2 in UFC, but he’s had some tough matchmaking. His losses are to Andre Lima and Sumudaerji, both by split decision. He beat Azat Maksum by unanimous decision in October.
Nascimento is 4-1 in UFC with his only loss being a split decision to Tagir Ulanbekov. He’s coming off a bonus clinching anaconda choke on Cody Durden in November. Before that the Chute Boxe product won a fun fight over Nova Uniao’s Jafel Filho (which he came in heavy for).
In the Maksum fight Raposo barked a lot about his odds for the bout. I don’t love that he’s paying that much attention to this stuff. He’s got reason to be fired up in this fight, though, being the underdog again.
I think Nascimento is very tough match-up for him here. Nascimento is three inches taller with five inches of reach on him. He’s the more willing striker and his submissions are a big X factor in this fight.
Raposo likes to try and be a rag-dolling wrestler, but I think Nascimento (with those extra long limbs) will be very dangerous off his back (just look at some of the stuff he was able to pull off against Filho).
Best bet: Allan Nacscimento moenyline (-192)
JJ Aldrich (+136) vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth (-162)Aldrich has not fought since March 2025. That’s when she took a unanimous decision over Andrea Lee. She was supposed to fight Karine Silva last summer, but fell out of that due to injury. She’s 10-6 in UFC, having been with the promotion since 2016.
Horth is on a two fight winning streak. She looked sensational in her last fight, lighting up Tereza Bleda for a first round TKO. Before that she dominated an under-sized Vanessa Demopoulos.
Horth has shown some genuine improvement lately, so I think she’s good value for her favorite odds here. She’s also a size bully. I think she’ll be too big for Aldrich to handle, especially during long wall and stall periods.
Best bet: Jamey-Lyn Horth moneyline (-162)
John Castanada (-125) vs. Mark Vologdin (+105)Castanada hasn’t fought since about a year ago. That’s when he lost a split decision to Chris Gutierrez. Before that he lost a unanimous decision to Daniel Marcos. His last UFC win was a decision over Kyung Ho Kang in 2023.
Vologdin has been signed off Contender Series. In October he earned his contract by losing a war against Adrian Luna Martinetti (who is scheduled to debut on the next fight card). That has been called “THE GREATEST FIGHT OF ALL TIME” by UFC’s YouTube team. Vologdin is 12-4-1 in fights fought mostly on the Russian regional scene.
Vologdin seems pretty fun, but he’s given up a lot of size to the veteran. I think Castaneda will use his experience, and superior wrestling, to prevent this fight being anything close to fun.
Best bet: John Castanade moneyline (-125)
Jamie Siraj (-270) vs. John Yannis (+220)This is a debut for Siraj. And it’s another instance on this card of a fighter making it to the big show without any appearances on UFC feeder programs. Up until now Siraj has mostly featured on Western Canada’s Battlefield Fight League. He’s 14-3, 31 years-old and fighters out of Tristar.
Yannis was in the same boat as Siraj in August, when he came into UFC out of Fury FC. He was served up to hot prospect Austin Bashi, on short notice, and lost by first round submission (see it here). He’s now 9-4 and also 31 years-old.
We haven’t seen anything of Siraj at the UFC level. We’ve only seen Yannis in there for a minute or so. So it’s hard to be very confident about either guy here.
Siraj was knocked out by a Diego Brandao wheel kick last year, though.
I’ll take the guy that didn’t happen to.
Best bet: John Yannis moneyline (+220)
UFC Winnipeg Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …
Mike Malott to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+450)I really like Malott to win in this match-up. He’s looked good as the level of his competition has increased and Gilbert Burns is closing in on 40 (and in the midst of a career worse losing skid). I think Malott will put hands on him early and have Burns foggy going into the second. From there, I think there’s a ground and pound win on the table for him.
Two bet parlay: Croden vs. Zhelezniakova and Boser vs. Saricam both to finish under 2.5 rounds (+470)I like Melissa Croden in this match-up and I think she might be able to break down Zhelezniakova and get a finish. The other fight is Heavyweight, so it’s a coin flip on whether it will be a fun Heavyweight fight with a quick finish or a boring slog that goes five rounds. I think Gokhan Saricam’s athleticism will lead to him either beating down TanBoser early or running into a KO shot.
Charles Jourdain to win by Submission (+600)Air Jourdain has two things he does exceptionally well and he likes to go to his guillotine when he has guys hurt (like he did to Davey Grant). I can see him snatching up his front choke on Kyler Phillips as Phillips pushes him into the fence looking for a takedown.
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