The latest fuel price forecast for May is better, but still BAD
· The South African
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has triggered volatility in global oil markets after a blockade enforced by the United States Armed Forces created uncertainty over key shipping routes.
The vital corridor – handling roughly a fifth of global oil and gas trade – has seen heightened naval activity following the collapse of talks between the United States and Iran in Islamabad.
Visit tr-sport.bond for more information.
Reports indicate some vessels have diverted or turned back, while limited transit continues under selective enforcement.
Oil markets react
Brent crude briefly surged above $100 per barrel before fluctuating, as traders balanced supply risks against the possibility of renewed diplomacy.
Analysts warn that even partial disruption can drive up shipping costs, insurance premiums and overall price volatility.
Iran has condemned the blockade as an act of piracy and warned of potential retaliation, fuelling concerns of broader regional escalation.
Impact on South Africa
For South Africa, the implications are significant.
As a fuel-importing nation, it is highly sensitive to global oil price movements and currency fluctuations.
Rising crude prices, coupled with a weaker rand, could translate into higher petrol and diesel costs in upcoming fuel price adjustments.
Economists caution that continued instability – even without a full closure of the waterway – may quickly push up fuel prices for South African consumers.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections for May 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
FUELPRICE CHANGEPetrol 93increase of 229 centsPetrol 95increase of 263 centsDiesel 0.05%increase of 806 centsDiesel 0.005%increase of 807 centsIlluminating Paraffinincrease of 652 centsIf the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 229 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 263 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 806 and 807 cents per litre increase.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 652 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $98.56 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.41/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 5 May.