Charles Schwab Challenge picks 2026: It's time for Rickie Fowler to finish one off

We're back in Texas this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge, though there will be no Scottie Scheffler. However, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas and Ludvig Aberg are all in the field, giving this staple on the PGA Tour schedule some solid star power.

Visit saltysenoritaaz.com for more information.

Both Fowler and Thomas are guys our experts have their eyes on, though it's two longshots that multiple experts are on, one a multi-tour winner and another looking for win No. 1 on tour.

The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.

RELATED: A promising trend for Justin Thomas

Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge:

Charles Schwab Challenge picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions

Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Akshay Bhatia (35-1, Bet365) — It’s a simple recipe for betting Akshay this week: He’s the second-best player in this field over the past 36 rounds, per BetspertsGolf.com—he’s the second-best putter and the ninth-best approach player. That’s a great combo for Colonial. And he’s all the way down at 35-1 on the odds board.

Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Rickie Fowler (27-1, FanDuel) — Rickie Fowler has three top 10s in his last four starts. Rickie finished T-60 at Aronimink because of his putter. Those greens are the toughest these guys will see all year on tour. All other aspects of Fowler’s game have been firing for the better part of 2026. He tied sixth and T-16 in two of his last three starts at Colonial. It’s time for Fowler to finish one off. Gaining almost six strokes on average against the field at Hogan’s home over his last three trips to Fort Worth, Rickie won’t be the only Oklahoma guy winning in Texas this week.

Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: JJ Spaun (31-1, DraftKings) — Spaun’s game is perfectly suited to what has historically worked best at Colonial, and he’s also played exceptionally well at correlated courses over the past handful of years (+1.04 SG/tee to green), including a win at TPC San Antonio in April. Spaun ranks second in my model this week, rating out better than everyone else in the field in tee-to-green and ball-striking play in spots where it's been difficult to gain off the tee and on approach. Spaun also leads the field in GIR% when filtering for courses with low GIR rate, difficult ball-striking and small greens, which is exactly what we're looking at this week at Colonial. Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Harry Hall (40-1, FanDuel)— A T-3 and T-6 in three starts at Colonial prove he loves Ben Hogan’s old stomping grounds. He’s already got a top 10 at ultra positional WAIALAE (RIP) this year. Now it’s time for the Hogan cap-wearing Hall to join Mr. Hogan in the glass display in Fort Worth. Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Max Greyserman (60-1, FanDuel) — Greyserman had a massive spike week with his irons at Craig Ranch, but you’re not going to separate at that place strictly on iron play. At Colonial, however, you might (see: Riley, Davis, 2024). His T-9 in the CJ Cup is his best result of 2026, and it’s the latest sign he’s back on the right track toward that first dub. He’s now made three straight cuts, including a T-14 in the PGA Championship. I’ll probably be too early on him and he’ll win at Rocket or 3M, but I’d rather try to cash in on the 60-1 early rather than the inevitable 30/25-1 later. Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Justin Thomas (+2350, DraftKings) — Justin Thomas showed some serious signs with his fourth-place finish at the PGA Championship. Now Thomas returns to a club-down golf course that should emphasize his elite short to middle iron play and short game. Past results: We have our FOURTH winner of 2026, and our first stretch of back-to-back winners. Ryan Noonan and Stephen Hennessey both correctly picked Cameron Young to win the Cadillac Championship at +1250, giving Noonan his third win of 2026 (and his second in a row with the Fitzpatrick bros. at 12-1 at Zurich) and Hennessey his second, his first coming at the Farmers (Justin Rose 60-1). Noonan also nailed Nico Echavarria’s victory at the Cognizant at 60-1. Hop on the train while you can. Listen to Golf Digest's weekly betting podcast, "The Loop," (below) where we interview the industry's leading experts (and sometimes tour pros) to help you make your bets and pick your fantasy lineups. And be sure to subscribe to "The Loop" wherever you get your podcasts!

Charles Schwab Challenge picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win

Mayo: Sudarshan Yellamaraju (86-1, DraftKings) — The fifth-best player in this field per strokes gained/total, per BetspertsGolf.com, and we’re getting him at almost 100-1. It’s like the books forgot about his T-5 at another positional track, TPC Sawgrass. We didn’t forget, Sudarshan. Stewart: Taylor Moore (90-1, DraftKings) — Innisbrook’s Copperhead course is a great comp venue for Colonial Country Club. Taylor Moore won the Valspar Championship (2023) and is coming off four straight top-40 finishes. Each result has improved by the week, T39-T20-T17-T14. Moore is a great close-range scorer who can drive the golf ball. When his iron game gets going, that’s when Taylor can win. Gaining seven strokes on the field in his last two starts and trending up for two months, I expect a little more from Taylor this week. Noonan: Max Greyserman (60-1, FanDuel) — Max Greyserman's statistical profile has been flipped on its head of late, but it makes him a bit more appealing, in my opinion. Greyserman's baseline putting performance was always among the best in the game, and a handicap typically involves looking for him to spike tee-to-green. Over his past few starts, it's been the exact opposite. Greyserman's MC at Augusta was his third in a row, but he’s been excellent in the four starts since, getting better and better each time out. He followed up his T-14 at Aronimink with a T-9 last week at Craig Ranch, despite losing 0.63 strokes per round on the greens, but he led the field in approach, gaining 2.8 strokes per round. He ranks fourth in this week’s field in SG/tee to green over the past 16 rounds, so if he can continue to show consistency there and bring back the putter, he’s very live to win this week.

Hennessey, Golf Digest: Chris Kirk (80-1, FanDuel)— The six-time PGA Tour winner is a past champion at Colonial and in great form with his irons, which is the path to success here. Get him on some putting surfaces he usually gets on with, and we have a longshot victor at 80-1. Powers, Golf Digest: Chris Kirk (80-1, FanDuel) — Was fully in on Bud Cauley and then Steve reminded me he WD’d and is now attempting to sic the haters on me because of it. Sad! As punishment, I’m tailing him on Kirk, though I do so with confidence. Colonial is an ideal ballpark for Kirk, who won here back in 2015 and has started to cook with his irons of late. Lack: Andrew Novak (72-1, DraftKings) — Andrew Novak has been quietly trending on approach, and he is coming off a 26th-place finish at the PGA Championship where he gained four strokes with his irons as well as in the other two tee to green categories. Colonial is a second shot golf course through and through, which plays right into Novak’s skill set. RELATED: Ludvig’s problem, JT’s surge and the worst cities in Texas: 10 things for Colonial

Charles Schwab Challenge picks 2026: Players We’re Fading

Mayo: Ludvig Aberg (+980, DraftKings) — Show me something on Sunday and then talk to me. Stewart: Robert MacIntyre (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Over the past month-plus, Robert MacIntyre is ranked 124th in the field for strokes gained approach. The two-time Ryder Cupper cannot figure out his iron game. That inconsistency has now leaked into the short game and putter. Skip this roller coaster ride at a course that rewards consistency. Noonan: Robert MacIntyre (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Bobby Mac’s approach play is a non-starter for me this week, given how important it is to succeed at Colonial. He’s lost an average of 1.29 strokes per round on approach over his past four starts, which is the third-worst mark in the field. It’s a small sample, but his larger sample data isn’t much better. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ben Griffin (25-1, FanDuel) — BG is playing better golf but nowhere near what he was doing in 2026. Given the extra requirements as defending champion, this is an easy pass. Powers, Golf Digest: Russell Henley (18-1, Bet365) — I’m as big of a Henley guy as anybody, but this number is too low, especially considering he seems to be in a bit of a post-Masters rut. Lack: Robert MacIntyre (20-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Something simply hasn’t been right with Robert MacIntyre of late, particularly on approach. MacIntyre ranks 111th in this field in approach play over the last three months, and Colonial is a golf course where the second shot is highly critical to success.

Charles Schwab Challenge picks 2026: Matchups

Mayo: Akshay Bhatia (-108) over Ryo Hisatsune (Coolbet) — Riding with Akshay hard this week. Stewart: J.J. Spaun (-125) over Akshay Bhatia (FanDuel) — Hogan’s Alley benefits the best ball strikers. Spaun is ranked in the top 10 in the field in approach and around the green. Spaun’s been on an incredible run tee-to-green for a couple of months. Since Akshay Bhatia’s trip to India in late March, Bhatia’s ball-striking has not been the same. I think the driver stayed overseas, and the irons have lost strokes in three straight starts. On a venue where accuracy (really) counts, take the U.S. Open champion to be ahead by Sunday afternoon. Noonan: Andrew Novak (-104) over Ryan Gerard (Pinnacle) — Novak ranks seventh in SG/T2G on Colonial comp courses and overall tee-to-green play over the past 16 rounds. On the greens, he couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat, but he's field average on bentgrass greens over the past two years, which is something he can't say for most putting surfaces. Again, we're looking for continued success tee-to-green and a field-average putting performance. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Alex Smalley (-145) over Gary Woodland (BetMGM) — Smalley’s entering with some of the most consistent form of anyone in golf. Woodland has been great this year, but not as consistent in the past month after his breakthrough in Houston. I’ll happily ride the hot hand here. Powers, Golf Digest: Max Greyserman (-110) over Sahith Theegala (DraftKings) — Greyserman is ascending, which is why I believe he can threaten to win this week. Sahith seems to be going in the other direction, having finished 69th at the no-cut Truist and T-60 at Aronimink. Lack: Andrew Novak (-135) over Rasmus Hojgaard (Southpoint) — Andrew Novak is one of my favorite bets of the week, whereas this is a golf course that significantly limits Rasmus Hojgaard’s greatest weapon, his driving distance. I will certainly ride with Novak’s approach play over Hojgaard’s driving at Colonial. Matchup Results from the CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Powers: 1 for 1 (B. Brown (-104) over Ghim); Lack: 1 for 1 (Moore (-135) over Ventura); Mayo: 1 for 1 (Jaeger (+110) over Bezuidenhout); Noonan: PUSH (Blanchett (-115) over Kohles); Stewart: 0 for 1; Hennessey: 0 for 1Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes):Stewart: 12-3-2 (up 7.7 units); Powers: 13-6-0 (up 5.93 units); Lack: 10-8-1 (down 0.05 units); Mayo: 8-10-1 (down 1.39 units); Noonan: 8-9-2 (down 2.25 units); Hennessey: 7-11-1 (down 4.6 units)

Charles Schwab Challenge picks 2026: Top 10s

Mayo: Brian Harman (+650, FanDuel) — The lefty thrives on shorter positional tracks, so let’s dial up the Big Game Hunter. Stewart: Justin Thomas (+280, DraftKings) — The trend is your friend for Justin Thomas. In his last three starts, Thomas has finished T-23, 13th, and T-4 at the PGA Championship. All four primary strokes gained categories are positive for JT. Always an incredible wedge player on approach, Justin has gained with the putter in eight straight rounds since switching his flat stick. Take the 10 places and wait for the backdoor cover to come on Sunday. Noonan:Justin Thomas (+280, DraftKings) — I think it’s a good week to look at correlarated courses, it’s a big piece of my model build this week, and the list of Colonial comp courses screams Justin Thomas. He has wins at Southern Hills, Harbour Town, TPC Southwind, Waialae and TPC Sawgrass. He’s finished T-2 at Narashino and Innisbrook recently as well. Dating back to the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills, Thomas leads the field in SG: T2G (+1.19) per round on Colonial comp courses. His driver has been far more consistent this season, and he’s gained an average of 0.32 strokes per round over his last 24 rounds after being flat to the field (-0.01) over the past 75 rounds. He remains one of the elite short iron and wedge players in the world, and we’ll see that on display this week. Hennessey, Golf Digest: Rickie Fowler (+215, DraftKings) — I’d love to find room for Rickie on my outright card, but if not I’ll ride his consistency to another placement cash. Powers, Golf Digest: Tom Kim (+650, FanDuel) — A lot of sharp folks loved TK last week, and he hit his irons well but couldn’t buy a putt. This week is an accurate short-knocker's paradise. I’ll go right back to the Kim well with that in mind. Lack: Keegan Bradley (+425, Bet365) — Keegan Bradley already has a runner-up finish at Colonial to his name, and despite a disappointing season, the former Ryder Cup captain still possesses one of the best short games and resumes on short, positional golf courses in this field. Top-10 results from the CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Johnny Keefer +900); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Max Greyserman +405); Everybody else: 0 for 1 Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Mayo: 6 for 19 (up 17.15 units); Powers: 6 for 19 (up 10.25 units); Stewart: 5 for 19 (up 2.85 units); Noonan: 5 for 19 (up 0.5 units); Hennessey: 3 for 19 (down 5.6 units); Lack: 3 for 19 (down 6.65 units)About our expertsPat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor and content partner with Golf Digest. Stewart is a co-founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour, LPGA and TGL. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter for the industry's best betting narratives. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan. Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.

Read full story at source