2026 MLB Mock Draft 1.0
· Yahoo Sports
Is that a mockingbird? Nope. It's the tune to Mock Draft 1.0 from The Sporting Tribune.
Again, just like last year and the year prior, I waited until the five-week marker to the MLB Draft for the first mock draft here at The Sporting Tribune.
Visit moryak.biz for more information.
Just to explain why we wait so long, information never stops during the scouting cycle and it takes time to turn skepticism into credence. Summer, by actual solstice definition, begins in two weeks, which means spring is near its end and high schools have wrapped up playoffs and kids are donning cap and gown, while NCAA D1 Regionals are done and we are one week away from Omaha.
Bonus rumors are strictly rumors at this stage, and as you're aware, bonus demands and signability concerns can outweigh the talent assessment portion which is what causes smoke-and-mirrors mayhem in the finals weeks leading up to the draft.
Private workouts and interviews haven't taken place for the most part but are being scheduled, likely in the coming week(s) here, right before and following the MLB Draft Combine.
The MLB Draft Combine itself (to be held at Phoenix's Chase Field from June 22-27) has been a big boost for players who aren't expected to be selected in the first 75 picks or so, but can take a perceived fifth-round talent and move them into third-round territory while posting new peak data markers as kids are a little more free to let loose and not be forced to abide development restrictions from their previous amateur programs/coaches (i.e., just because you run fast doesn't mean you have to hit the ball on the ground...). It is also a place to turn in your medical information, which has the reward of a 75% guaranteed amount of the slot bonus from a players selection pick. Following that, it's a great place to let scouting directors and decision-makers sit down for personal conversations with players at the top of the draft to finalize makeup assessments and development quirks that could fit their organization.
Promptly after the Combine, teams will fill our war rooms within their home stadiums or near-by Marriott ballrooms for final draft meetings. Each team operates on this level differently, but for the most part, this is the final group assessment to finalize big boards and separate players via internal models. These are usually private meetings where non baseball-direct staff members aren't allowed to pop their heads into the room -- though, medical staff is almost always included to finish medical reports which have become as important as the bonus demands, and aren't limited to just the players medicals but any family public records as well (it's heavily detailed stuff). These meetings can take place anywhere from 1-4 weeks before the draft and run for a week long, or in some cases, go until the pick is made.
When it comes to the 2026 draft class, there are a few group separators at the top that runs about six deep and then a bulk grouping that diverges into 20-30 players of different demographics with a reasonable consensus at the top of each demographic but still remains a grouping of tenners.
The top of the class is held by a trio in UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey and Dallas-metro based (Fort Worth Christian HS) prep shortstop Grady Emerson. While Cholowsky is the rare polished and tooled-up college shortstop that has been a hot commodity since his high school days and will likely run the spring as 1-1 through-and-through, Emerson may possess more upside while Lackey gives some of the rarest value/tools at position seen in over a decade.
The next trio grouping consists of the top college arm in UC-Santa Barbara Jackson Flora and prep athletes Jacob Lombard (Gulliver Prep HS, Fla.) and Eric Booth Jr. (Oak Grove HS, Miss.). Flora has a reasonable gap to the next college pitcher and may have a notable gap to the next pitcher in general. Lombard and Booth are a tier above their prep position player counterparts by a substantial margin.
The next grouping runs about 20-30 deep, and I won't hit on all of them but instead split some of the demographics.
Preps own the lefty pitching market with Gio Rojas (Stoneman Douglas HS, Fla.), Brody Bumila (Bishop Feehan HS, Mass.), Logan Schmidt (Ganesha HS, Cal.), Carson Boleman (Southside Christian HS, S.C.) and legitimate two-way Jared Grindlinger (Huntington Beach HS, Cal.) at the top of the pitching class in general behind Flora. The college southpaws will blend in with the preps, though most see the four prep arms as superior talents to the collegiates, with a group that includes Cole Carlon (Arizona State), Mason Edwards (USC) and Hunter Dietz (Arkansas).
Other arms who could see a selection between picks 7-30 would be Liam Peterson (Florida), Tegan Kuhns (Tennessee), Cade Townsend (Ole Miss) and two college righties who missed time due to injury or fatigue in Cameron Flukey (Coastal Carolina) and Logan Reddemann (UCLA).
The college hitting group who has first-round buzz runs lengthy; about 10 names or so, between infielders Chris Hacopian (Texas A&M), Justin LeBron (Alabama), Tyler Bell (Kentucky), Ace Reese (Mississippi State); outfielders Drew Burress (Georgia Tech), A.J. Gracia (Virginia), Sawyer Strosnider (TCU), Aiden Robbins (Texas), Derek Curiel (LSU); and catcher Ryder Helfrick (Arkansas).
The prep position players following Lombard and Booth (and Grindlinger to a degree) are a bit far and in-between, which may push them up boards in the likes of infielders Bo Lowrance (Christ Church Episcopal HS, S.C.), Cole Prosek (Magnolia Heights, Miss.); and outfielder Trevor Condon (Etowah HS, Ga.).
Hopefully that catches you up on the spring in a short amount of time, and we can get this mock underway.
Just as another yearly injunction, this mock is not a self-reflection of personal rankings of who I think any given team should take, but a gathering of sourced information from across the industry to report what is believed to occur on July 11.
As a personal side note that the readers should probably know, I planned a family trip to Europe during the final week of June and first week of July with a plan to fly back the day before the MLB Draft, but the lovely people at NBC and MLB decided to move the draft up a day (rounds 1-4, actually) which kind of screwed me up. So, as I attempt to move up some flights and navigate the international internet system, there is a strong likelihood I will be covering the draft while flying over the Atlantic. I will still be in contact with the industry during my nights in Scandinavia, so there will be the usual week/end before mock and mock draft the morning of. Just like giving the readers full transparency if things go dark because of internet on Finnair.
We'll run it 40 deep to give every team a pick this go round.
1. Chicago White Sox - Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA
Throughout the spring, this felt like something you wrote down in pencil with a pen within arm's reach. However, as we approach the final weeks, the pen is starting to become a little more distant from the hand and the pencil may still be airborne.
While UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky is still the favorite to land 1-1 with Chicago for a multitude of reasons, the perceived gap between him and others has narrowed. This isn't a gimme for the White Sox who are continuing to do their homework on what should be a franchise-altering decision, or, you know, doing their job. There are at least three options outside of Cholowsky for Chicago, not limited to Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey, Texas prep shortstop Grady Emerson and Florida prep shortstop Jacob Lombard.
Lackey seems to have most traction of the back trio and some believe he may be the top choice internally, though there is much more common industry belief that Cholowsky is their man.
Two of the primary decision-makers, GM Chris Getz and scouting director Mike Shirley, were part of the same decision-making group that expressed real interest in taking Cholowsky out of high school in 2023. There is a lengthy scouting track record here and a lot of strong belief in reaching his upside within a competitive window. The pair have shown some transparency in how much they both like the player.
Others who have the ear of ownership, which can be a determining factor with this club, have expressed lesser opinions which has added a wrinkle.
Bonus demands will play a part here, but likely not enough to think there will be a significant swing in any direction. I wrote 1,100+ words about the potential finances (and perception) that can alter the choice at 1-1 which can be read here; but in short, teams picking first overall have granted an average bonus of 83.8% slot value in the bonus-pool era; which in this case would be $9.5M+ and over $1.83M in savings. This pick is going to be a record-setter north of $9.25 million with zero debate.
The dialogue about teams picking lower using newly acquired bonus pool funds to force Cholowsky and Emerson into an eight-digit bonus bracket (more on this later) haven't dissipated but have simmered. Even if the bonus is $10M, that is near 12% slot value savings, north of $1.3 million.
Or, flipping that script, a 75% slot guarantee by turning in medicals at the MLB Draft Combine would guarantee any given player $8,512,950 for this pick, which would be roughly $2.85M in savings, but would it be enough to sway them from the gap on projection of their perceived top four? The money won't be a massive factor as it has been in past years.
All-in-all, this isn't a Caleb Williams or Connor Bedard situation where Chicago is deadlocked on a player months before the draft. Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye and Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson are all loudly in the mix.
Generalizing percentage chances as I usually do with the first pick: Cholowsky 44%, Lackey 32%, Emerson 20%, Lombard 3.5%, Field