Can Mexico Win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
· Yahoo Sports
Mexico is currently buzzing with excitement as El Tri could very well win its first World Cup knockout stage match in 40 years. Javier “El Vasco” Aguirre’s bunch is +120 to beat Ecuador Tuesday in front of the home crowd at what will certainly be a raucous Estadio Azteca. The +120 price tag gives Mexico a 45.45 percent implied probability of winning the match. Ecuador is +280 to beat Eli Tri (26.32 percent chance), and a tie in regulation is +190 (34.48 percent).
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To those Mexico fans dreaming big, Eli Tri currently has +5500 odds at Fanatics Sportsbook to win the whole shebang. That gives them a 1.79 percent implied probability of capturing their first-ever World Cup trophy.
Mexico has appeared in the World Cup 18 times in its rich soccer history. Home turf has been kind to El Tri historically, as its best finishes in the tournament came in 1970 and 1986. In both of those years, Mexico was the host country.
If Mexico can beat Ecuador on Tuesday, it will advance to the Round of 16, where it will again play in Mexico City. If Raul Jimenez and crew can advance all the way to the quarterfinals, it will then play on US soil as the final three rounds of the 2026 World Cup will be played in the United States.
Reasons for optimism
Say what you will about Aguirre’s defensive-heavy style (and Mexico fans have said plenty), but it certainly worked in group play. El Tri became just the sixth nation in World Cup history to win all three group matches without allowing a goal as they shutout South Africa (2-0), South Korea (1-0), and Czechia (3-0).
Mexico now faces an Ecuador team that struggled to find the net in group play. Ecuador lost to the Ivory Coast on June 14 by a score of 1-0. It then battled Curacao to a 0-0 draw on June 20, and then edged Germany 2-1 on June 25.
So, a trip to the Round of 16 is expected for Mexico.
Reasons for pessimism
If Mexico can topple Ecuador on Tuesday it will advance to the Round of 16, where it will face the winner of England and the Democratic Republic of Congo. That Round of 16 match would take place on July 5 in Mexico City.
With the assumption that England will prevail over DR Congo (DR Congo is a hefty +1100 underdog), Mexico would be a sizable underdog against the English despite the game being played at home.
Out of the 31 teams remaining in the World Cup, England (+650) has the third-best odds of winning the tournament. Mexico appears 13th on the Fanatics World Cup futures odds board.
England flexed its scoring muscles in its first match of group play as it scored four goals in a 4-2 victory over Croatia. The Three Lions played to a 0-0 draw against Ghana on June 23, and then beat Panama, 2-0, on June 27.
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