Torontonians fleeing city in droves, new TMU report suggests
· Toronto Sun
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New data out of Toronto Metropolitan University shows that Toronto’s population growth has seen a dramatic swing since 2024, going from the fastest growing metro area in the United States and Canada all the way down to No. 443 last year.
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The report, from TMU’s Centre for Urban Research and Land Development, says while a drop in international migration was a factor – it also brought Montreal and Vancouver far down the list – the big cause is that Toronto is bleeding residents to other parts of Canada.
“Toronto ranked 443rd out of 471 metropolitan areas, after ranking first in 2024 during a year of record population growth caused by a tidal wave of immigration,” the report, posted to the centre’s blog this week , says.
The centre did not respond to a request for comment from the Toronto Sun .
Authors blame high cost of living
In the report’s conclusion, the authors blame Toronto’s population pains on its high cost of living.
“Toronto’s sharp population slowdown reflects a combination of factors, including a reduction in immigration. However, the city’s rank among other North American cities reflects sharp trends in out-migration of its existing population,” the report says.
That outflow appears to be just barely larger than the total number of births and new immigrants in Toronto in 2025.
“As the region attracted newcomers from around the world at lower rates than in 2024,” the report adds, “increasingly unaffordable housing appears to be pushing many residents to other parts of Canada.”
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The campaign office of Olivia Chow, who is seeking another term as Toronto mayor, ignored a request for comment from the Sun .
The man who polls say is the other front-runner for the job, Brad Bradford, suggested the authors’ conclusion rings true.
“Toronto is losing a competitive battle to cities across North America because we’ve made it too expensive to live here,” Bradford said in a statement to the Sun . “While city hall has been raising taxes and creating more congestion, other cities are pulling ahead, actively attracting the young families and workers Toronto should be winning.
“Under Mayor Chow’s leadership, we are watching talent, investment and opportunity leave because the cost of living in Toronto is too high.”
Better on the U.S.’s sunny side
The centre’s report is based on data from Statistics Canada and the U.S. Census Bureau, and its figures for last year are based on the 12 months ending on July 1, 2025.
The report says while Canada’s immigration totals fell in 2025, Toronto still saw “one of the strongest rates of international migration” among large North American cities – No. 5, behind only metropolitan New York, Miami, Houston and Dallas.
“However, the region also continued to lose residents to other parts of Canada at a very high rate, resulting in negative net domestic migration,” the report adds.
Metros in the southern U.S., many of them in Texas and Florida, dominate the report’s lists.
The top three fastest growing metros across the U.S. and Canada for 2025 were Houston, Dallas and Atlanta, the report says. Calgary and Edmonton came in seventh and eighth, respectively.
Meanwhile, Canada’s other big metros also fell hard in that ranking, although not as far as Toronto. Montreal went from fifth in 2024 to No. 25, while Vancouver plummeted from sixth to 92nd.
The data makes it look like Canadian cities have trouble getting other Canucks to move in. The report’s top 10 list for net domestic migration is made up entirely of warm-weather metros, with Charlotte, N.C., ranked No. 1.
“Not a single Canadian metropolitan area made the top ranking” for net domestic migration, the report says.