New York Yankees @ Chicago Cubs: Will Warren vs. Shota Imanaga

· Yahoo Sports

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 26: Will Warren #29 of the New York Yankees throws a pitch gainst the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on July 26, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies defeated the Yankees 11-4. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The Yankees’ offense better wake up, as they’ve scored just two unearned runs in their last 22 innings. Facing a Cubs team that ranks second in the majors with 5.17 runs scored per game and third with a 111 wRC+, they simply cannot afford to give so many ABs away, New York failing to dent home plate in 28 of their last 32 innings played. Fortunately, they’ll face a pitching staff that is seventh-worst with a 4.68 FIP, though it’s not like the White Sox were much better in that department and were still largely able to silence the Yankees in the final two games of their just-completed series.

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Will Warren is coming off one of his worst starts of the season — six runs on six hits in three innings against the Phillies. It’s already the fifth start in which he has given up at least five runs, four of those coming since June 20th, Warren posting a 6.57 ERA over his last eight starts after opening the season at 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA across his first 12 starts. To me, the problems appear to be threefold: he can’t get lefties out, he struggles to pitch from the stretch, and he suffers a massive third-time-through penalty. That doesn’t bode well against a Cubs lineup that features five batters from the left side and is second in baseball with a .340 OBP. In 20 starts, Warren is 7-5 with a 4.41 ERA (102 ERA+), 4.16 FIP, and 102 strikeouts in 102 innings.

The Cubs declined their three-year team option on Shota Imanaga over the winter after he struggled in 2025, the two sides eventually reuniting on the qualifying offer for 2026. He has rewarded that renewed faith with a rebound performance, gaining a mph back on his fastball which has seen his chase and strikeout rates tick back up to his stellar rookie campaign marks in 2024. The 32-year-old lefty relies on hitters getting themselves out rather than overwhelming you with stuff, the four-seamer acting as a setup pitch for his splitter and sweeper. The Yankees are getting him at an awful time as Imanaga is coming off consecutive scoreless starts of at least six innings. In 21 starts, Imanaga is 7-8 with a 3.72 ERA (109 ERA+), 4.39 FIP, and 113 strikeouts in 121 innings.

The Yankees opt for their usual lineup against lefties, but with a pair of notable changes. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is not in the lineup after exiting yesterday’s loss in the 11th with cramps, which allows Spencer Jones a rare start against a lefty in right as José Caballero is forced to man second. Amed Rosario, Anthony Volpe, and Ali Sánchez will be tasked with carrying their weight with the supposed platoon advantage against the soft-tossing lefty.

The Cubs stack their lineup with lefties against Warren. Leading off is the MLB position player leader in fWAR (7.1) in Pete Crow-Armstrong, the All-World center fielder leading baseball with 21 Outs Above Average and sixth in wRC+ (152) as he makes a legitimate push to challenge Shohei Ohtani for the NL MVP. Seiya Suzuki, Pedro Ramírez, Michael Busch, Michael Conforto, and Ian Happ have all been better than league average at the plate, while between Happ, Nico Hoerner, Alex Bregman, and Dansby Swanson, the Cubs boast one of the best defensive infields in the game.

Keep in mind that there is some iffy weather in the forecast for the North Side of Chicago, so we’ll have to wait and see if there’s a delay or worse. A doubleheader later in the weekend could be in play.

How to watch

Location: Wrigley Field – Chicago, IL

First pitch: 2:20 pm ET

TV broadcast: YES, Marquee Sports Network

Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY) | 104.3 The Score, WPPN 106.7 / TUDN (CHC)

Streaming: Gotham Sports App, MLB.tv (out-of-market only)

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