A petrol price below R14: What will it take?
· The South African
Wouldn’t it be nice to fill your tank cheaply? An entire generation of South Africans learned to drive, got their licences, and bought cars, never knowing the feeling of an under R14 petrol price. That could change under the perfect conditions.
When was the petrol price R14?
2018 was the last time 95 octane fuel was reliably under R14 a litre. March 2018 to be exact. At the time, you could buy petrol inland for R13.76 a litre. This price was higher than the average of the time, when petrol fluctuated between R12 and R13 a litre.
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Again, in May 2020, during the COVID-19 lockdowns, the petrol price repeatedly dropped to below R14. But never for periods longer than three months.
What is different now compared to back then, and what would it take for South Africans to experience affordable fuel again?
Brent Crude Needs to Drop Below $50 a Barrel
According to the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR), in January 2017, the average dated Brent Crude price per barrel was $53.45 (R740.81 at the time). In July of that year, it dropped below $50 a barrel, to $46.48 (R598.19 in 2017) before jumping back up to $51.66 (R682.42) in September 2017.
The average dated Brent Crude price would not drop below $50 for another three years.
Then the COVID-19 pandemic brought travelling to a halt.
The price of Brent Crude plummeted. Between April 2020 and January 2021, the average dated Brent crude price fluctuated between $18.99 (R350.74 in May 2020) and $49.20 (R734.55 in January 2021) per barrel.
It hasn’t dropped below $50 a barrel since.
The Rand Must Strengthen Against the Dollar
When the price of petrol was reliably under R14 a litre, the rand traded below R14 to the dollar.
For most of 2017, the rand traded at less than R13.80 to the dollar. The only exception was January 2017 when it was R13.86. Then again in December, it surpassed R14 to the dollar, reaching R14.09.
The same applied to 2019. However, in the final three months of the year, the rand traded at above R14.
Since then, the rand has weakened, with a peak above R19. The currency strengthened slowly from that peak and remains below R17 to the dollar. Yet it has not returned to a rate below R14 since July 2021, when it briefly dipped below R14.
YearBrent Crude Average ($)Rand/Dollar Average2017$53.30R13.372018$71.79R13.132019$63.42R16.392020$43.15R16.402021$68R14.732022$97.86R16.252023$82.79R18.312024$82.77R18.63**2026$82.31R16.49****Only partial data available.
Prices are based on the DMPR’s petrol price archive, which only has records until July 2024 and June 2026.
The Fuel Levy and Road Accident Fund Shouldn’t Increase
According to this table, the price of petrol should be at 2022 levels. However, that wouldn’t be possible since the fuel levy has steadily increased. In March 2017, it was R2.85. Today, it’s R4.29.
The Road Accident Fund (RAF) contribution was R1.63 in 2017; as of 2025, it’s R2.18.
Transport Costs and Retail Margins Must Stabilise
The unfortunate thing about petrol is that when fuel prices rise, transporting petrol becomes more expensive; for inland provinces, this exaggerates an already inflated price.
Retailers also need to get their piece of the pie.
As everything has slowly become more expensive, so too has the retail margin. Surprisingly, the margin has only increased by 80% in 9 years despite petrol increasing by 85%.
Fuel price breakdown in March 2017 compared to August 2026
The DMPR has stressed these are only guidelines. However, they give drivers insight into why petrol costs as much as it does.
ItemMarch 2017August 2026Basic Fuel PriceR6.12R14.68Fuel LevyR2.85R4.29Road Accident FundR1.54R2.25Transport CostR0.41R0.87Retail MarginR1.76R3.15TotalR12.68R25.24*Estimates based on October 2025 reporting.
These are some of the conditions South Africans should want, as it will make petrol affordable again.