LILLEY: Trade war theatre helps Carney, Ford and Trump but hurts everyone else
· Toronto Sun
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For the last week, Mark Carney, Donald Trump and Doug Ford have been ramping up the rhetoric, turning a trade spat into a war for political gain. As they collect the political benefits, ordinary Canadians and Americans will pay the price through lost jobs and lower wages.
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Let’s get some perspective on a spat our prime minister is describing as a war.
Trump’s new round of tariffs is wrong. They are economically harmful, but they do not amount to a declaration of war, trade war or otherwise.
Canada and the United States trade about $2.6 billion USD in goods and services each day. The new Trump tariffs apply to about $20 billion USD of Canadian exports, roughly 7.6 days’ worth of trade.
It’s just 5% of our total exports to the United States.
That’s insulting, it’s infuriating, but it’s not a war.
Yet war is how our prime minister described this when he responded to the collapse of trade talks last weekend .
“You’re at war when you get attacked, we got attacked,” Carney said last Saturday while speaking to reporters.
It’s a great soundbite. It rallies the population. It is good politics on his part, but it’s not based in reality.
Carney’s comments set the stage for what came after, with the rhetoric ramping up day after day until Trump was renaming Lake Ontario as Lake America .
War talk takes over
On Monday, Ontario Premier Doug Ford was doing a radio interview with Bill Carroll on Toronto’s Newstalk 1010.
Moments before the interview started, Trump posted to Truth Social that, starting Jan. 1, “Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel, will be increased to 50%.”
When Carroll read that live on air to Ford, the response was, “ He can kiss my ass .”
A few hours later, as Ford was starting a news conference in Hamilton, Trump took to Truth Social again.
This time, Trump called Ford a “flunky,” made several insulting comments about Canada and said the premier is “better known as the less charismatic, intelligent, and overall unimpressive brother of the late, great, Rob Ford.”
Ford lost it between the insults and having his late brother Rob invoked.
“I don’t respond to a dictator like President Trump, a bully like President Trump,” Ford said.
“This guy’s a loser, he’s gonna be a loser.”
Within days, we were arguing over the name of Lake Ontario.
How did we escalate so quickly?
Our political leaders put political expediency ahead of common sense.
Carney didn’t have to say we were at war with the Americans.
When the talks broke down a week ago, there was no shouting, no name-calling, no swearing or denunciations. It was all very civil.
The next day, it was a war.
Everyone has a political incentive
Carney has been facing criticism for giving up certain items, like the Digital Services Tax and the delayed opening of the Gordie Howe Bridge, without getting anything in return.
By framing this as a war, he riles up the public, energizes his base and ignites patriotic fervour.
There are three federal byelections on Monday, and Carney’s framing of the talks breaking down helps him in all three races.
Ford, too, has three byelections this coming week. He’s likely to win one, but fighting with Trump could see him win two and, if things go really well, all three.
Picking a fight with Trump has been good politics for Ford before, and it may be again.
Then there is Trump and the midterms, with key House and Senate races up for grabs.
The conventional wisdom in this country is that a trade war with Canada hurts Trump.
Trump, though, can point to steel production being up 6.6% since he was elected and auto production being up 12.9% in the same period as proof that his America First strategy and tariffs are working.
Also, headlines about fighting with Canada and renaming lakes are far better for Trump than headlines about problems in the bond market, concerns over the country’s $40 trillion national debt and fears that this will push interest rates higher.
The little guy pays
Each of these leaders has a reason why, politically at least, keeping this fight in the headlines helps them.
Sadly, none of this bluster, this exaggeration of how big the problem is, will help any of the people hurting because of the new tariffs and counter-tariffs.
The politicians reap the rewards.
The little guy pays the price.