Ohio State moves to No. 1 in ESPN's FPI ranking after historic collapse. Huh?
· Yahoo Sports
There's a new No. 1 team in college football following No. 1 Ohio State' epic meltdown vs. No. 3 Texas on Sept. 12.
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It's Ohio State.
ESPN on Sept. 13 updated its Football Power Index to move Ryan Day's Buckeyes up a spot — jumping the Longhorns — to claim the No. 1 ranking atop the FPI. That follows a disastrous second half in which Ohio State was outscored 21-3 (and 21-0 in the fourth quarter) en route to a 24-23 defeat.
It should be noted ESPN's FPI isn't a reflection of a team's resume or body of work, like the US LBM Coaches Poll, AP Top 25 or even the College Football Playoff rankings. Instead, ESPN defines its metric as such:
"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."
Specifically, FPI "measures a team's true strength on a net points scale" against an expected point margin vs. an average opponent on neutral field.
That explains how FPI moved the Buckeyes to No. 1 after their loss to Texas — a move that, anywhere else, would be head-scratching at best and indefensible at worst. Texas was a 1.5-point favorite at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, and won by one point.
ESPN's FPI also gives Ohio State a 25% chance of winning out the remainder of the season — second-highest in the country — with No. 5 Indiana, No. 6 Oregon (for now), No. 14 Southern California, No. 21 Iowa and No. 24 Michigan still on the schedule.
The Buckeyes also have a 16.4% chance to win the national championship, trailing only Texas' 19.7%.
It's cold comfort for Day and the Buckeyes, who will look to rebound from the disastrous meltdown and make the most of the 2026 college football season — with the chance of a national championship still very much on the table.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ohio State moves to No. 1 in ESPN's FPI ranking after historic collapse. Huh?