Why The Midterms Elections In The US Matter To India So Much
· Free Press Journal
Washington’s current foreign policy, in general and in the sense of it affecting India, resembles a bizarre reality show, like the ones US President Donald Trump used to host during his TV days. It essentially says New Delhi must agree to buy billions in American goods and services and kowtow to the White House.
The United States is heading towards a crucial midterm election on November 3, 2026, and two critical issues impact India the most: trade and tariffs and immigration.
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The elections, placed halfway through Trump’s second term, will decide the composition of the 120th US Congress, putting all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives (House) and 35 Senate seats up for election.
Why The Election Matters To India
India has a vast talent pool in the US. For them, this election is not merely political theatre; it could mean upending their lives.
There is definite global anxiety over Trump’s behaviour pattern and mental acuity. Since re-entering the White House in January 2025, Trump has relied on building his authority by repetitive use of fantastical ideas of American hegemony. He also expects unquestioning loyalty from the world’s sovereign nations. These personality traits must be listed out because they have defined US foreign policy under Trump.
This creates immense instability, because most of Trump’s policy proclamations are announced over social media without any due process. The administration is simply expected to fall in line.
Congressional Control In Focus
If the ruling Republican Party maintains its 53-45 majority in the Senate (there are two independents) and holds on to its slim 218-214 hold on the House (there are two vacant seats and the lone independent legislator is aligned to the Republicans), Trump will continue to operate with what will turn out to be a legislative rubber stamp. The House Speaker, Mike Johnson, has, in his words and actions, often shown greater loyalty to Trump than to any legislative rulebook.
A shift in congressional control in favour of the Democrats would mean that the checks and balances needed in any parliamentary democracy are in place.
Trump’s H-1B Crackdown
India’s tech pool in the US faces a terrifying policy shockwave. Indians often secure more than 70% of the annual approved H-1B visas. The latest White House proposal to eliminate the discretionary 60-day grace period for legal immigrant workers and bring it down to just 24 hours could be catastrophic.
Under existing law, a laid-off H-1B tech professional has two months to secure a new job sponsor, transfer paperwork, or arrange their affairs. Under Trump’s new proposal, this safety net is completely vapourised, effectively making the tech professional a candidate for a “24-hour deportation”. The moment an H-1B visa holder’s employment ceases, he fails to maintain lawful residency status. Unless he can instantaneously transition to an alternative visa category, he is legally required to leave the US immediately or face deportation proceedings.
In India’s multi-billion-dollar IT sector, which relies heavily on talent mobility, the midterm election outcome is effectively a vote on structural stability.
A Democratic Party turnaround would trigger institutional resistance. Congress can theoretically use committee hearings to hold immigration enforcement budgets (such as the ICE crackdowns in several states), drag administration officials into oversight probes, and introduce legislative firewalls to protect high-skilled legal immigrants—a policy that has been at the core of America’s global dominance as an innovation economy.
India’s Oil Supply
India is heavily reliant on West Asian oil, and the financial and strategic costs of a protracted US-Israel-Iran war are severe. We have already witnessed a first cut of that this year, soon after the February 28 attack when oil prices around the world almost doubled. As the second phase of the war intensifies, crude oil prices are rising again.
A Republican-led Congress will expand the war budget without significant oversight. Conversely, if the Democrats take control of even one chamber, they can force the administration towards negotiation rather than take unilateral action without any scrutiny.
The makeup of the next Congress will dictate whether Washington pursues military engagement or is forced into diplomatic restraint.
Prospects For The Democrats
Historically, any president’s party almost always loses ground during midterm cycles. Recent polling numbers from mid-September 2026 indicate a turnaround for the Democrats. On September 15, a New York Times-Siena poll gave the Democrats a 51%-43% advantage. An Ipsos Congressional Poll placed Democrats at 44% compared to 37% for Republicans, while other major pollsters like YouGov show the Democratic lead expanding up to eight points.
The shifting domestic landscape in Washington should keep Indian policymakers and strategists focused on geopolitical diversification. Over many decades, New Delhi has relied on bipartisan support within the US Capitol. The rise of deeply polarised, ideological factions within Congress could change this. Traditional diplomatic networks face unpredictable political shifts.
On trade, an unchecked, and dare we say unhinged, Trump will likely continue using the threat of unilateral tariffs to demand market access concessions from India while forcing New Delhi to place strict restrictions on buying oil from Russia or Iran. On the larger Indo-Pacific architecture, we need a separate debate altogether.
The New Delhi View
Leader-to-leader diplomacy provides temporary headlines, but long-term policy nimbleness requires deep institutional ties. India must continue to build its own economic partnerships (BRICS, G20, etc.), expand regional alliances (QUAD), and maintain its strategic autonomy. The results on November 3 may decide the immediate path of American foreign policy, but India must keep its long-term policy trajectory intact.
Veteran journalist and commentator Sachin Kalbag teaches foreign policy at St Xavier’s College, Mumbai. As a foreign correspondent based in Washington, DC, he has covered US politics and the White House for Indian newspapers.