Fuel price nightmare awaits SA’s motorists in October
· The South African
South Africa’s motorists are facing another potentially painful fuel-price increase in October, with the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) figures showing petrol, diesel and illuminating paraffin recoveries deep in the red.
The latest data available in mid-September points to increases of well over R2 a litre for all fuel grades if current trends continue through the remainder of the month.
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Petrol 93 is showing an under-recovery of around R2.42 per litre, while Petrol 95 is even further into the red at approximately R2.62/litre.
Diesel is also under significant pressure, with the 0.05% sulphur grade showing an under-recovery of around R2.42/litre, while 0.005% diesel is at approximately R2.81/litre.
Illuminating paraffin is showing an under-recovery of about R2.94/litre.
These figures are not yet the final October increases, but they underline the pressure building on motorists after September’s sharp price adjustment.
Diesel motorists face another blow
Diesel users are not escaping the latest pressure.
Current projections indicate increases of roughly R2.40 to R2.80/litre, depending on the grade and how the market performs during the rest of the review period.
The potential impact extends well beyond motorists.
Higher diesel prices increase operating costs for trucking, agriculture, logistics and other businesses, with those costs potentially filtering through to the prices consumers pay for transported goods.
Middle East tensions keep oil prices elevated
A major factor behind the worsening fuel outlook is the continuing volatility in international energy markets.
Brent crude has moved above the $100-a-barrel level amid heightened concerns about supply disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East.
The rand is another piece of the puzzle
South Africa’s fuel-price calculation is affected not only by international petroleum prices but also by the rand/US dollar exchange rate.
A weaker rand makes imported petroleum products more expensive in local currency.
The rand weakened on Wednesday as markets awaited the US Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate decision, adding another variable for local fuel prices.
That means motorists are currently being squeezed from both sides: elevated international energy prices and exchange-rate movements.
September already delivered a major increase
The latest October pressure comes after motorists were hit by a substantial adjustment at the start of September.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) confirms that the current fuel prices took effect on 2 September 2026.
The September increase followed a sharp deterioration in international petroleum-product prices, meaning motorists could now face another significant increase only one month later.
October prices are not final yet
Importantly, motorists should not treat the current CEF figures as the final October fuel prices.
The CEF’s daily data provides a snapshot of the under- or over-recovery at that point in the month. International petroleum prices and the rand can still move significantly before the review period ends.
If oil prices fall or the rand strengthens, the expected increases could shrink.
But further oil-price spikes or a weaker rand could push the figures even higher.
The next official adjustment is scheduled to take effect on Wednesday, 7 October 2026.
- Petrol 93: increase of R2.47 per litre
- Petrol 95: increase of R2.62 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): increase of R2.42 per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): increase of R2.81 per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: increase of R2.94 per litre
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices.
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products.
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $104.84 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.31/$.