Vikings-Saints preview: Key matchups, stats that matter, and an X-factor

October 9, 2026 · Yahoo Sports

The Vikings’ undefeated season will be on the line on Sunday when they travel to New Orleans to take on a Saints team that is reeling from a lopsided loss to the Falcons this past Monday. In theory, Minnesota should have a good shot to get to 5-0. But the Vikings’ struggles on offense and the Saints’ desperation level are reflected in the Vegas line, with the Vikings favored by just 2.5 points at the Superdome.

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Let’s dive into our preview of Sunday’s game.

From the practice field: What they’re saying

Despite the Saints’ struggles this season, the Vikings aren’t going to be taking anybody lightly this season. New Orleans has plenty of talent, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, where Tyler Shough has been airing it out to Chris Olave, Devaughn Vele, and Juwan Johnson. The Saints’ defense has really struggled, but coordinator Brandon Staley is very familiar with Kevin O’Connell from their year together on the Rams’ staff in 2020.

“I think Kellen Moore is a really good coach,” O’Connell said on Wednesday. “Brandon is one of the best defensive coaches in football. I think he’s got a great coaching staff and a really talented team. Going through it today with the team, it was pretty clear to show examples of how well-coached they are, how talented of a group they have. A young quarterback playing really well. This is going to be as big of a challenge, they’re all challenges, but as big of a challenge as you can imagine to try to go 1-0 in the NFC this week.”

The stats that matter

This is a fascinating get-right spot for the Vikings’ offense, which has not played well this season but might’ve found something on the final two drives of last week’s win over the Dolphins. The Vikings are 31st in yards per game and 28th in EPA per play. But the Saints’ defense is 32nd in points allowed, 26th in yards per game, and 30th in EPA per play. It’s a stoppable force going up against a movable object.

The Saints’ offense is a solid 14th in EPA per play and is going up against a Vikings defense that leads the league in EPA per play by a wide margin. Only Bryce Young and Jared Goff are averaging more passing yards per game than Shough (300.8). But Shough has also been sacked 12 times (one off the league lead) and has been pressured 77 times (second-most). He’s tied for the league lead with five fumbles, three of which he’s lost.

The Saints don’t have starting running back Travis Etienne, which has been an issue. Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller have run for 127 yards on 44 carries (2.9 YPC), which has caused New Orleans to become rather one-dimensional. Shough’s 180 pass attempts were easily the most in the league coming into Week 5.

Individual matchups to watch

When the Vikings have the ball, keep an eye on backup left tackle Ryan Van Demark, who will be stepping in for Christian Darrisaw (concussion) and making just his seventh NFL start. Van Demark’s primary matchup will be Chase Young, who has a strong case as the Saints’ best defensive player. Young has 13.5 sacks in his last 15 games, and his 90.4 PFF pass rush grade trails only Aidan Hutchinson among all edge rushers. The Vikings may need to give Van Demark some chip help.

When the Saints have the ball, third-year right tackle Taliese Fuaga is a potential weak point. The former first-rounder has just a 47.4 pass-block grade and has allowed 18 pressures, second-most in the league behind only Carolina’s Rasheed Walker. Look for Dallas Turner and Andrew Van Ginkel to go after Fuaga.

An X-factor

How about special teams? The Vikings have been incredible in the third phase of the game this season, with Will Reichard knocking in field goals like a machine and Myles Price making big plays in the return game. Minnesota has had a player win NFC special teams player of the week in each of the last three weeks. The Vikings are getting rookie punter Brett Thorson back from a hamstring injury on Sunday.

The Saints haven’t been as good on special teams. Former Vikings punter Ryan Wright is 25th in the league in net yards per punt. Kicker Daniel Carlson (another former Viking, albeit only briefly) has already missed a couple field goals on seven tries. New Orleans doesn’t have any punt or kick returners that jump out.

Head-to-head history

The Vikings lead the all-time series 25-13 and have won two in a row. The last meeting was in 2023, when Josh Dobbs helped the Vikings win at U.S. Bank Stadium. Before that, the Vikings beat the Saints in 2022 in London.

This will be Minnesota’s first time playing at the Superdome since Alvin Kamara scored six touchdowns in a Saints romp on Christmas Day in 2020. The Vikings won a playoff game in New Orleans the previous season, but their last regular season win in NOLA was all the way back in 2008.

Injury/availability report

The Vikings will be without two starting offensive linemen in left tackle Christian Darrisaw and left guard Donovan Jackson. Ryan Van Demark and Joe Huber will start in their place. Right tackle Brian O’Neill is questionable. Also questionable are wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, so Sunday morning’s inactives will be important to track.

The Saints are without a key defensive piece in linebacker Kaden Elliss, their best tackler and run defender. Running back Alvin Kamara is questionable. You can find the full injury report here.

Minnesota connections

Former Vikings players on the Saints include Ryan Wright, Daniel Carlson, and Ty Chandler (injured reserve).

Saints wide receiver Bryce Lance, the younger brother of Trey, is from Marshall, MN and was a fourth-round pick out of North Dakota State this year. Saints TE Treyton Welch is from Buffalo, MN. Offensive lineman Dillon Radunz, another former NDSU Bison, was born in St. Cloud and went to high school in Becker, MN.

Saints DB Jordan Howden is a former Gopher.

Former Vikings safety Robert Blanton is a defensive assistant on the Saints’ coaching staff.