Arch Manning gets bad news from NFL Draft analyst
· Yahoo Sports
Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning entered the 2026 college football season with plenty of buzz as a potential top pick in next year’s NFL Draft, but his uneven play has made that outlook a lot murkier.
Now, longtime NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay has left Manning off his list of the top 10 quarterback prospects for the 2027 draft entirely, and he thinks that the Texas star would be better off spending another year in college.
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‘College football’s most average QB’
McShay’s ranking comes just days after Manning struggled in Texas’ 27-24 loss to unranked Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry. He went 19-for-31 for 260 yards and three touchdowns, but he also threw two late interceptions, including a pick-six and one that set up the Sooners’ game-winning field goal.
That performance led to some pretty harsh analysis of Manning, with Jason Kirk of The Athletic calling him “college football’s most average QB” in his Until Saturday newsletter.
Kirk pointed out that Manning’s passer rating of 143.31 sits almost exactly at the average for this year’s 138 FBS teams, which is 142.25.
“‘Joe Smith’ fits Manning because, despite how frequently it has felt like he is the most promising or overrated or over-hated QB ever, he really just plays like a ‘Joe Smith,'” Kirk wrote.
That was a reference to Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian, who defended his quarterback by arguing that if people pictured “Joe Smith playing quarterback at the University of Texas,” they would see things differently.
Through five games this season, Manning has completed 63% of his passes for 1,122 yards with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions.
McShay’s 2027 QB Board
McShay revealed his updated quarterback rankings in a post on X on Thursday, noting that his “tape deep dives on Arch, Mestemaker and Simmons made this a good week to reset my 2027 QB board.”
C.J. Carr topped the list with a “Top 5” grade, followed by Trinidad Chambliss, Darian Mensah, Drew Mestemaker, and Dante Moore.
The rest of the top 10 included Jayden Maiava, Julian Sayin, Brendan Sorsby, Drake Lindsey, and Josh Hoover. Manning was nowhere to be found.
‘Another college season’
McShay addressed Manning in a follow-up post listing quarterbacks he believes should return to school for 2027, and the Texas quarterback was at the top of that list.
“Arch Manning — Return. Explore a transfer? — There’s still time to turn this season around. I’m more bullish on his NFL future than the social media doom suggests, but another college season currently looks like his best path,” McShay wrote.
Needless to say, it’s not the kind of evaluation that many expected for Manning entering the season. But with plenty of football left to play, he still has a chance to change the narrative.
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