95% of MAGA Republicans approve of Trump. For non-MAGA Republicans, it's 47%.
· Axios
Three national polls show President Trump's approval rating hitting new lows as Democrats lead Republicans by 8 to 10 points ahead of the midterms."
Why it matters: Republicans need Trump's loyalists to turn out, but embracing an unpopular president risks alienating independents they need to win competitive races.
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Driving the news: New polls from the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos, NBC News and Fox News put Trump's approval at 33%, 34% and 36%, respectively — record or second-term lows in each survey.
- Democrats lead Republicans by eight points in the Post poll, nine points in Fox's and 10 points in NBC's among registered voters.
- Once a strength, the economy is now Trump's main vulnerability. Just 21% approve of his handling of the cost of living in the Post poll, 27% in NBC's and 22% approve of his handling of inflation in Fox's.
- Even Republicans are souring: Fox and NBC both find Trump's approval among Republicans at 76%, while the Post puts it at 79%.
Zoom in: Republicans face a growing divide within their party.
- Fox reports 95% approval of Trump among self-described MAGA Republicans, versus 47% among non-MAGA Republicans.
- The Post finds 75% of MAGA Republicans say they're certain to vote or have already voted, compared with 57% of non-MAGA Republicans.
- The Post poll also says 37% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents want GOP leaders to take the party in a different direction from Trump, an all-time high.
The big picture: A Reuters review published earlier this month found that Republican candidates in 41 of 62 competitive congressional races either broke with Trump on policy or downplayed their ties to him.
- At least a dozen of those candidates removed Trump's name, image or endorsement from their campaign websites, according to Reuters.
- Even some Trump voters see the problem: A Politico poll found 26% of people who voted for Trump in 2024 believe Republican candidates would be better off breaking with him.
What they're saying: "Distancing yourself in general, that isn't anything new," Principles First executive director and Republican political strategist Brittany Martinez told Axios. "But Republicans, many Republicans, all over the country … intentionally, strategically" moving away from him "speaks volumes."
- She noted some Republicans have criticized his policies without directly blaming him, pointing to an ad from Rep. Maria Salazar (R-Fla.) that warned Trump he should be careful about what his advisers were telling him about immigration policy.
- Kentucky Senate nominee Andy Barr, Florida gubernatorial nominee Byron Donalds and Georgia gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson are are among the candidates who removed references to Trump from their websites.
What they're saying: White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement that "President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress."
- Donalds' campaign comms director Gates McGavick said the congressman is "proud to have President Trump's endorsement."
- A White House official told Axios there's no distance between Trump and candidates. Several candidates still sport their Trump ties front and center.
Between the lines: Republicans still appear with him, even if they don't always agree with his policies.
- Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton has privately lamented the impact of the Iran war and gas prices on his campaign. But he also appeared onstage with Trump at a campaign rally.
- Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), who is also locked in a tight Senate race, called for an end to the war in Iran, citing high fuel prices for Iowans. Days later, she appeared in the Oval Office alongside Trump and fellow lawmakers.
The bottom line: Republican candidates are trying to hold onto Trump's devoted base without letting his growing unpopularity define their campaigns.