How can Texas beat Missouri? Longhorns will need to finally find a way to run to help Arch Manning
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AUSTIN - Texas has two options if it hopes to beat Missouri on Saturday.
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Unleash Arch Manning and have him pass for, say, 400 yards and five touchdowns.
Or somehow, some way, by God knows how, find 150 yards rushing from someone, anyone. And that won't be Hollywood Smothers, who reportedly will be out for the season with a torn ACL.
Since Manning has never reached either of those totals in his 23 career starts and has topped even 300 yards only once this season against Texas State and only five times at Texas, those kind of gaudy numbers are pretty unlikely.
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Of course, since the Longhorns have never run for more than 228 yards in any game this year and rushed for fewer than 100 yards as a team in three of their eight games, it may be equally hard to expect much different in Columbia.
Even worse, Texas has failed to produce even as much as 100 yards rushing in 11 of its last 25 games, almost half of its games over that span. There is no more disturbing trend involving the Longhorns that this issue.
The last time Texas went on the road, it managed a meek 61 yards in the win over Tennessee. The last time Texas played, it ran for 60 yards with no single run longer than 11 yards by a running back.
As the No. 7 ranked team according to the first reveal of the College Football Playoff ratings, Texas remains in the thick of the race to land one of the dozen post-season spots but almost certainly has to win at least three of its next four games. A 9-3 record with only a loss to Missouri this weekend or LSU next weekend, the Longhorns wouldn't be guaranteed.
In actuality, head coach and play-caller Steve Sarkisian must come up with a gameplan that offers some semblance of balance.
That may be totally unrealistic because a weak offensive line, missing its best player in Trevor Goosby, has been a problem all year long because it rarely drives the line back or creates gaping holes.
And now plays a first-time starter at right tackle in Andre Cojoe. The line has been the biggest issue since Sarkisian arrived in Austin.
Sarkisian has not expressed any confidence at all in the his backup offensive linemen and Cole Hutson apparently would not offer any type of immediate upgrade for the fifth-year lineman who has played in 50 games and started 23 at center and left guard although he played sparingly against Mississippi State.
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When I asked him about the readiness of Hutson and whether he is going to contribute, Sarkisian said, "Time will tell."
In the meantime, logic would follow that Sarkisian should consider some smart moves to offset a really dynamic Missouri defense that has 19 quarterback sacks and allows just 98 yards a week on the ground:
• More screen passes to Raleek Brown and Michael Terry III to slow down the pass rush and find easy yards after finally dusting that off last Saturday.
• More short, quick passes to the tight ends in areas vacated by blitzers and more slant patterns to slot receiver Emmett Mosley V.
• Rollouts and at times a moving pocket for Manning to keep him out of the crosshairs of an aggressive defense and allow him time to find open receivers.
• RPO calls for Manning out of the bootleg.
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• More designed runs by Manning, who needs to be more savvy about the hits he takes and quit running like a pinball. He may lead the nation in helmets knocked off.
Follow those suggestions, and maybe Texas can stay ahead of the sticks and avoid the obvious passing downs on 2nd-and-9s and third-and-7s. Pass on first down.
Now it's possible none of those will work.
The injury news is not favorable because Smothers is out and five other starters, including receivers Ryan Wingo (shoulder and quad) and Cam Coleman (shoulder) as well as edge rusher Colin Simons and defensive backs Graceson Littleton and Kade Phillips, were listed as questionable on the SEC availability report Wednesday night. Wingo, a St. Louis native, seems more likely to give it a try as does Simmons.
Smothers' injury aside, the running back room is pretty deep. Brown is playing solid football and is finally being utilized as a receiver. Terry had a really strong game against Ole Miss and is very versatile.
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"We know this is going to be a physical football game, and it's a style of play that that we pride ourselves on," Sarkisian said Thursday. "So also it's a style of play that Missouri prides themselves on. So I think that's critical."
Texas has only been able to do that in moments. Not for four quarters. Not even for multiple quarters although the Longhorns did finally score a touchdown in the third quarter for the first time in five SEC games. Progress?
Sarkisian has been seeking that kind of identity all year with little success.
"Our ability to play complementary football in all three phases (is key), and that's going to require mental and physical toughness in all three phases," Sarkisian said. "The physical side of it we know, but the the mental side of it to respond to the adversity, whatever adversity may strike, that we can respond and get ourselves kind of recalibrated and ready to go play the next play."
Mack Brown said as much on his podcast as he strongly begged for a better running attack to sustain drives and keep the heat off Manning.
"It goes back to me, until you can run the ball for 150 yards a game, home and away, and until you do that, you're not going to be able to protect," Brown said.
Texas ranks tied for 121st out of 138 FBS teams in sacks allowed with 24, which also ranks 14th in the SEC.
"If that defensive lineman knows that you're not going to be able to run the ball, and he can get his stance and be full speed ahead to do- he's not worried about screens," Brown said. "He's not worried about draws. He is worried about hitting that quarterback, and he doesn't have to worry about the running game. It's hard to block him. So it goes back to the running game."
As always.
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