Women's March Madness predictions 2026: Carlan Gay's expert NCAA Tournament bracket picks
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Women's March Madness predictions 2026: Carlan Gay's expert NCAA Tournament bracket picks originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
You’re probably here for one reason: to see whether someone on the internet was bold — or reckless — enough to pick against an undefeated UConn team led by potential No. 1 overall pick Azzi Fudd and Sporting News National Player of the Year Sarah Strong. The answer is yes. I did it. And before Huskies fans close the tab in disgust, just know they won’t be the only ones mad at me.
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Because while the anti-UConn pick is the headline-grabber, the real letdown for chaos lovers is this: I mostly went chalk in my 2026 Women's March Madness bracket. Sorry to the bracket sickos hoping for a 12-over-5 manifesto and a Final Four full of double-digit seeds. That’s not really where this is going. The top teams are top teams for a reason, and most of my picks reflect that, even if one giant swing sits right at the center of the bracket.
And LSU fans, you may want to brace yourselves, too. Flau’jae Johnson and the Tigers are good enough to make noise, good enough to scare people and absolutely good enough to make this prediction look stupid. But in this version of March Madness, their run ends before the Elite Eight.
So yes, there are takes here, and some of them might annoy you. But I’m not here to hurt feelings — I’m here to be right.
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Women’s March Madness bracket predictions 2026
Region 1 — Fort Worth picks
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FIRST ROUND
1 UConn over 16 UTSA
8 Iowa State over 9 Syracuse
5 Maryland over 12 Murray State
4 North Carolina over 13 Western Illinois
6 Notre Dame over 11 Fairfield
3 Ohio State over 14 Howard
10 Colorado over 7 Illinois
2 Vanderbilt over 15 High Point
SECOND ROUND
1 UConn over 8 Iowa State
5 Maryland over 4 North Carolina
6 Notre Dame over 3 Ohio State
2 Vanderbilt over 10 Colorado
SWEET 16
1 UConn over 5 Maryland
2 Vanderbilt over 6 Notre Dame
ELITE EIGHT
1 UConn over 2 Vanderbilt
If UConn gets Vanderbilt in the Elite Eight, I’m taking the Huskies because this feels like one of those superstar vs. superstar matchups where the better team around the star wins it. The headline is obvious: Sarah Strong vs. Mikayla Blakes, the Sporting News Women’s College Basketball Player of the Year against the player she edged out for it. Blakes has been outrageous, leading Division I in scoring at 27.1 points per game with 12 30-point games, so this isn’t about pretending she can be shut off. She’s too good for that. But Strong is the kind of all-around problem who changes every part of a game, averaging 18.5 points, 7.6 rebounds, 135 assists, 111 steals and 53 blocks while doing a little bit of everything for an unbeaten UConn team.
That’s why I’d still lean UConn. The Huskies just have more bodies to throw at Blakes and more ways to survive the stretches when she starts cooking. Between Strong, KK Arnold and Ashlynn Shade, UConn has enough length, activity and defensive discipline on the perimeter to make Blakes work for everything. Arnold has 93 steals, Shade has 61, and UConn as a team is holding opponents to just 50.4 points per game, 33.3% shooting overall and 27.4% from three. That doesn’t mean Blakes won’t get hers. It means Vanderbilt probably won’t get enough easy offense around her to win the game. And that’s usually where UConn breaks teams — not by stopping the star completely, but by making everybody else come up with more than they have.
Region 2 — Sacramento picks
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FIRST ROUND
1 UCLA over 16 Cal Baptist
8 Oklahoma State over 9 Princeton
5 Ole Miss over 12 Gonzaga
4 Minnesota over 13 Green Bay
11 Nebraska/Richmond over 6 Baylor
3 Duke over 14 Charleston
7 Texas Tech over 10 Villanova
2 LSU over 15 Jacksonville
SECOND ROUND
1 UCLA over 8 Oklahoma State
5 Ole Miss over 4 Minnesota
3 Duke over 11 Nebraska/Richmond
2 LSU over 7 Texas Tech
SWEET 16
1 UCLA over 5 Ole Miss
3 Duke over 2 LSU
ELITE EIGHT
1 UCLA over 3 Duke
If UCLA gets Duke, I’m taking the Bruins because at some point, too much talent becomes the whole analysis. UCLA has looked like one of the most complete teams in the country all season, going 31-1, carrying a 25-game winning streak into the tournament and blasting Iowa by 51 points in the Big Ten title game. That’s not just talent on paper — that’s a team that has clearly clicked. Kiki Rice runs things, Gabriela Jaquez and Gianna Kneepkens give them real scoring balance, and the whole group feels connected in a way that makes them hard to speed up or knock off rhythm.
And then there’s Lauren Betts, which is really where this matchup tilts for me. Betts is averaging 16.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and shooting 56.2% from the field, and she’s the kind of interior force who can bend an entire game plan around her. Duke has a star of its own in Toby Fournier, who has been terrific at 17.3 points and 8.2 rebounds a night, but Betts is still the bigger problem in this specific matchup. Fournier is a bucket, but asking her to deal with Betts on both ends for 40 minutes feels like too much.
Duke is good enough to make this ugly, and its defense will absolutely have a say. But UCLA just has more answers. More size, more balance, more lineup versatility — and when the game gets tight, the Bruins feel like the team that can get to the cleaner shots. That’s usually what wins an Elite Eight game.
Region 3 — Fort Worth picks
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1 Texas over 16 Missouri St/SF Austin
9 Virginia Tech over 8 Oregon
5 Kentucky over 12 James Madison
4 West Virginia over 13 Miami (OH)
6 Alabama over 11 Rhode Island
3 Louisville over 14 Vermont
7 NC State over 10 Tennessee
2 Michigan over 15 Holy Cross
SECOND ROUND
1 Texas over 9 Virginia Tech
5 Kentucky over 4 West Virginia
3 Louisville over 6 Alabama
2 Michigan over 7 NC State
SWEET 16
1 Texas over 5 Kentucky
2 Michigan over 3 Louisville
ELITE EIGHT
1 Texas over 2 Michigan
If Texas gets Michigan in the Elite Eight, I’m taking the Longhorns because this feels like the kind of game they love to turn ugly early and then control from there. Texas’ pressure defense is the whole story. This is a team that led the SEC in turnovers forced at 24.1 per game and was allowing just 53.0 points per game when Rori Harmon and Madison Booker were named to the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year watch list. That hasn’t gone away. In the SEC Tournament, Texas forced 14 turnovers against Ole Miss, then forced 14 more and turned them into 16 points in the title-game win over South Carolina.
The other reason I like Texas is how often it punches first. Through its first 34 games, Texas outscored opponents 743-451 in the first quarter, which is a ridiculous margin and basically the stat version of good luck chasing them all night. That fast-start habit is a big deal against a Michigan team that can absolutely score — led by Olivia Olson (19.6), Syla Swords (14.6) and Mila Holloway (12.6) — but they were also averaging 15.0 turnovers per game. That is exactly the kind of number Texas sees and starts licking its chops.
Michigan is talented enough to make this fun, especially if Olson gets loose. But Texas has the better point guard to settle the game, the more disruptive defense and a real habit of building a lead before teams can get comfortable. In an Elite Eight game, that usually matters.
Region 4 — Sacramento picks
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1 South Carolina over 16 Southern/Samford
9 USC over 8 Clemson
12 Colorado State over 5 Michigan State
4 Oklahoma over 13 Idaho
6 Washington over 11 South Dakota State
3 TCU over 14 UC San Diego
7 Georgia over 10 Virginia/Arizona State
2 Iowa over 15 Fairleigh Dickinson
SECOND ROUND
1 South Carolina over 9 USC
4 Oklahoma over 12 Colorado State
3 TCU over 6 Washington
2 Iowa vs. 7 Georgia
SWEET 16
1 South Carolina over 4 Oklahoma
3 TCU over 2 Iowa
ELITE EIGHT
1 South Carolina over 3 TCU
If South Carolina gets TCU in the Elite Eight, I actually think the SEC title game loss ends up being a blessing in disguise. Not because South Carolina ever wants to lose, obviously, but because it sharpens the focus and drops the unbeatable talk right before the games really matter. Dawn Staley’s group still heads into March at 31-3, with an SEC regular-season title already locked up, and now gets a path that feels a little more tailored to what the Gamecocks do best: defend, switch, throw bodies at stars and make you work for every clean touch.
That’s why I like them against TCU. The whole matchup starts with Olivia Miles, who has been fantastic for the Horned Frogs at 19.6 points, 6.9 assists and 3.8 turnovers per game. She can absolutely control a game when she’s comfortable. The problem is South Carolina is built to make lead guards uncomfortable. The Gamecocks have the tournament experience, the depth and enough rangy defenders to throw fresh looks at Miles all night, crowd her driving lanes and turn every decision into a tougher one than usual. Miles is too good to completely erase, but South Carolina has the profile to make her look messy.
And if Miles starts coughing it up even a little, I’m not sure TCU has enough offense around that to survive. South Carolina has been here before. It knows how to win ugly, how to win late and how to make a star feel like she has to do everything herself. In an Elite Eight game, that usually ends with the more seasoned team moving on.
Final Four picks
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1 UConn over 1 South Carolina
1 UCLA over 1 Texas
Championship game: 1 UCLA over 1 UConn
If UCLA is the team that finally ends UConn’s run, it’ll feel less like a shock and more like a team cashing in on everything it learned the hard way a year ago. The Bruins are 31-1, just won a second straight Big Ten tournament title, and they’re coming off the kind of statement that makes you look at them differently — a 96-45 demolition of Iowa in the league title game that pushed their winning streak to 25. Last season’s hurt is still sitting there, too. UCLA reached its first NCAA Final Four in 2025 and got flattened 85-51 by UConn, a loss Cori Close openly framed as pain the Bruins needed to learn from.
That’s why I’d buy UCLA finally finishing the job. Lauren Betts is the biggest matchup problem on the floor, and if this is the title game, I think she gets the better of Sarah Strong this time. UCLA has more than enough around her with Kiki Rice and a roster that feels deeper, cleaner and more connected than it did a year ago.
And honestly, the unbeaten thing matters. UConn is 34-0, finished the regular season undefeated and is chasing back-to-back national titles after winning its record 12th championship in 2025. That usually sounds like a reason to trust the Huskies. But in a one-game final, I think the pressure of keeping perfection alive finally shows up at the worst possible time. UCLA has already lived the heartbreak. UConn would be carrying the weight. That’s why I’d take the Bruins to break the streak, deny the repeat and win the whole thing.