Tigers 'not ready' to trade ace Tarik Skubal?
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How quickly the tide has changed for the Detroit Tigers.
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On Monday, June 1, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal called Tigers ace Tarik Skubal "a goner," writing that MLB executives largely expect Skubal to be traded. And this made sense at the time, with the Tigers then sporting the worst record in the American League at 22-38 and having just finished with a 6-22 record for the month of May.
Three days later, however, that narrative may have already changed.
Olney: Tigers 'not ready to sell'
Making an appearance on a video for Just Baseball published on Wednesday, June 3, ESPN's Buster Olney said the Tigers are telling teams they are not interested in trading Skubal.
Skubal has been out since April 29 and received arthroscopic surgery on his left elbow on May 6, a procedure that normally takes at least two months to recover from. However, with Skubal undergoing a relatively new procedure with a NanoNeedle aiding in the removal of a bone chip from his elbow, he and the Tigers are optimistic he can cut his recovery time in half.
And with the Tigers suddenly playing like contenders − at least to start June − that has shifted the winds of trade talks coming from Detroit's front office according to Olney.
"They are [strongly] saying, 'We are not ready to sell,'" he said. "What I heard from inside the Tiger clubhouse is that they were looking at mid-June [for Skubal's return], and that looks like it's going to be on-target. Which means they'll have about six starts with Skubal before the All-Star Break and they could see if they make headway again."
After their 22-loss May, the Tigers have been on a tear to start June, finishing off a three-game road sweep of the first-place Tampa Bay Rays scoring 25 total runs in the series. That was more than they had scored in their previous eight games combined.
The Tigers have also lifted themselves out of last place in the American League Central standings, though they still have the third-worst record in the league. They are now six games back of a wild card spot with 99 games left to go in the season and, with the impending returns of Skubal and starter Justin Verlander, will be getting support for their pitching staff.
According to Olney, the playoff math could still work out for the Tigers, leading them to hold on to Skubal for the rest of the season.
"Given the mediocrity of the American League, you win eight of 10 games if you're Detroit, suddenly your horizon is looking a whole lot different," he said.
What has changed in three days
The messaging coming from Olney lies in stark contrast to what The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal wrote on Monday, with MLB executives expecting Skubal to be traded following Detroit's disastrous May.
Olney doesn't disagree with Rosenthal's reporting, also saying that other teams are expecting the Tigers to make a deal for their ace.
"A lot of the conversation about Skubal is coming from folks like myself. It's speculation at this point, and you talk to other teams and they think that, yes, the numbers are such that the Tigers will have to sell," he said. "But for now, the Tigers are saying we're not trading him."
Though the Tigers' record doesn't look promising, their playoff odds are not dead in the water. Per FanGraphs, the Tigers have a 16% chance to make the postseason and a 7.1% chance to win the division, while Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA standings have the Tigers finishing with the second-best record in the division.
That's a big climb for a Tigers team that was at one point 16 games under .500, but especially with few can't-miss playoff teams in the AL, they seem as poised as any to make a run.
Passan: Skubal will be 'the focus' at trade deadline
ESPN's Jeff Passan published his early trade deadline preview on Thursday, saying that Skubal "will be the focus for every contender" and calling Aug. 3 "The Skubal Deadline."
"The deadline is largely about contenders shoring up pitching staffs, and there's no better bulwark than the best pitcher in the world. And, no, the prorated amount − around $10 million of his $32 million salary − will not be an impediment. If you can get Tarik Skubal, you get Tarik Skubal," he said.
Passan also said the Tigers could shop starter Casey Mize, second baseman Gleyber Torres, starter Jack Flaherty and catcher Jake Rogers, all free agents after this season.
But the back-to-back Cy Young Award winner is the big prize.
Olney says Padres are front-runners for Skubal
If the Tigers do end up trading Skubal, Olney says that contenders like the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees may not show interest with their strong starting staffs already in place.
He instead targets one team as a match for a Skubal trade: the San Diego Padres.
"What the Padres are communicating to other teams is we are going to be aggressive at the deadline," he said. "A.J. Preller is one of those general managers not afraid of risk ... and the Padres' clear need is for a starting pitcher."
Per MLB Pipeline's preseason rankings, the Padres have the worst farm system in baseball with only one top-100 prospect in the minors. But the Padres also have an aggressive mindset and a recent history of franchise-shifting trades, something the Tigers could leverage at the deadline.
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You can reach Christian at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: ESPN's Buster Olney says the Tigers 'are not trading' Tarik Skubal