Western Cape July rainfall lowest in decades: Where did the rain go?
· The South African
Large parts of the south-western Western Cape experienced their driest July on record in 2026 after an unusually dry winter month saw rainfall totals plunge well below average.
According to preliminary weather data, persistent high-pressure systems over the Atlantic diverted most cold fronts south of the province, resulting in only three weak frontal systems making landfall during July.
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Prolonged dry spell
The south-western Cape typically receives the bulk of its annual rainfall between June and August, making the prolonged dry spell particularly significant.
Cape Town International Airport recorded just 14.4 mm of rainfall during July – the lowest total since records began in 1958 and only around 16% of the long-term monthly average.
The previous July record low was 18 mm, set in 1987.
The dry conditions extended well beyond Cape Town.
The South African Observatory recorded just 15.6 mm of rain, marking its driest July in 91 years, while Malmesbury received only 3.2 mm, its lowest July rainfall in 33 years.
Kirstenbosch measured 65 mm, the lowest July total in 29 years, Hermanus recorded 12 mm, its driest July in 21 years, and Paarl received 27.6 mm, the lowest July rainfall in 17 years.
Dam levels
Several severe weather systems impacted parts of the Western Cape during May and early June, significantly boosting dam levels and improving water storage across much of the province.
However, conditions changed dramatically thereafter as a strong blocking Atlantic high-pressure system developed west of South Africa, steering cold fronts further south and away from the province.
As a result, only three weak cold fronts reached the south-western Cape during July, leaving what is traditionally the region’s wettest period far drier than normal.
As at 31 July 2026, the combined total storage percentage of the Western Cape’s six main dams stood at 78.4% of capacity.
Stark reminder
Seasonal weather forecasts had already indicated a strong likelihood of below-normal rainfall across the south-western Cape this winter, and short-term forecasts suggest the dry pattern is likely to continue into the first week of August.
With August traditionally the final major month of the winter rainfall season, residents, farmers and water managers will be hoping for a return to more typical rainfall before spring arrives.
Although dam levels remain healthier than they were earlier in the year thanks to the heavy rainfall in May and early June, the record-breaking dry July serves as a reminder of how quickly conditions can change in the Western Cape’s winter rainfall region.