Big Ten Rankings and Projections After Week 8
· Yahoo Sports
Two ranked teams lost last weekend while UCLA continued to stay unbeaten. Northwestern and Indiana both won to stay in contention for the Big Ten crown. USC lost badly at Wisconsin and Iowa lost on a field goal as time expired at Minnesota.
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So, how do the rankings look after those results?
Polls
There are 6 Big Ten teams ranked in the Coaches Poll and 5 in the AP Poll. Next week we’ll get the first CFP rankings for the 2026 season. For now, here are the other two major polls.
- Ohio State (2/2) up 1 in the AP poll
- Indiana (4/4) up 2 in the both polls
- UCLA (7/7) Up 2 in the AP poll and up 3 in the Coaches poll
- Northwestern (20/18) up 4 in the AP poll and up 5 in the Coaches poll
- Wisconsin (25/NR) new in the AP poll and not ranked in the Coaches poll
- Iowa (NR/24) out in the AP poll and down 10 in the Coaches poll
- USC (NR/25) out in the AP poll and down 10 in the Coaches poll
Chaos continues across college football as 3 top 10 teams lose-2 to unranked teams. Four other ranked teams lost, including two from the Big Ten. The Big Ten and SEC both have 3 top-10 teams, but with the chaos continues, who knows how many teams from each of those conferences will make it to the CFP.
Wisconsin is not in the top-25 in the Coaches poll, but they received enough votes to be #27. Iowa dropped out of the top-25 in the AP poll, but they received enough votes to be #26. USC received enough votes in the AP poll to be #32. Minnesota received votes in both polls; they are #31 in the AP poll and #30 in the Coaches poll. Nebraska is #32 in the Coaches poll. Oregon still got votes in the Coaches poll and is #37; Michigan is #39. That means that 11 of the teams in the Big Ten received votes in at least one of the major polls.
Composite Ranking
The Massey Composite (https://masseyratings.com/ranks) includes 87 different rankings (as of the writing of this article), including the AP and Coaches polls. The following ‘Cool Chart’ shows the changes since the preseason.
Some of these rankings don’t make a lot of sense given some head-to-head results. Rutgers beat Maryland, but they continue to be ranked at the bottom. UW beat Purdue (just recently) but Purdue is ranked slightly higher. And it doesn’t make sense that Oregon is still in the top-25 despite 3 total losses, including the recent loss to Illinois.
UCLA has the biggest change since the preseason; they are up 53 places. Northwestern is up 30 places while Purdue and Wisconsin are up 27.
Rutgers is down 43 places. UW is close behind; they are down 42 places. Penn State (-38) and Maryland (-32) are other Big Ten teams down at least 30 places since the preseason.
Other Rankings
There are other rankings of all FBS teams. Here is a table comparing the Massey Composite with some of the more popular rankings. (Note that some of these other rankings are included in the Massey Composite, but not all of them.) This should provide an image of how consistent the rankings are.
SchoolMassey CompositeSP+ESPN FPICBS SportsSagarinIllinois4748485137Indiana46647Iowa3023352627Maryland96818411074Michigan3927344534Michigan State75886410059Minnesota4557653049Nebraska2515132816Northwestern2020201624Ohio State21121Oregon2412114410Penn State5536305836Purdue5869587851Rutgers104978710877UCLA61731512USC2919253131Washington6035545742Wisconsin2240362318Both the SP+ and Sagarin ratings include FCS teams. South Dakota State is ranked above Rutgers in the SP+, but just below Rutgers in the Sagarin ratings.
There are some noticeable disagreements in these rankings. Five teams vary by more than 20 places. The biggest difference is with Michigan State which varies from 59 to 100. But the one that should stand out is Oregon. All but one of the rankings have them as a top-25 team, and Sagarin still has them as a top-10 team despite the 3 losses. It could be argued that some of the high ranking has to do with carry-over from last year and the preseason, but Washington was ranked in the preseason but is now no higher than 35.
Only three of the Big Ten teams are in the top-25 in all of these rankings: Indiana, Northwestern, and Ohio State. Nebraska and UCLA are in all but one. Iowa is in the top-25 in just one of these rankings. Half of the Big Ten teams are considered a top-25 team by at least one ranking.
F+ Ratings
The F+ Ratings (and rankings) are a combination of the FEI Rating and the SP+ Rating. It includes an overall rating along with separate ratings for offense, defense, and special teams.
SchoolOverall RnkOff RankDef RankST RankIllinois4224747Indiana613164Iowa2669135Maryland78768581Michigan32738103Michigan State72846721Minnesota59953223Nebraska16322087Northwestern21252660Ohio State13257Oregon13401025Penn State29422442Purdue6139943Rutgers905312447UCLA17381762USC1856171Washington39523376Wisconsin2879951Seven Big Ten teams are in the top 25 overall. Nebraska is a top-25 team here, and in most of the other rankings above, but they are not in the top-25 in either of the polls. Oregon is another team that is in the top-25 overall, but not in the polls, as is USC. Iowa is in the top-25 in the Coaches poll, but just outside here and in the AP poll.
Only 5 of the top 25 offenses are in the Big Ten. Illinois has a top-25 offense, but they aren’t in the top-25 overall. Nebraska and UCLA are top-25 overall, but their offenses are not.
The Big Ten has 9 of the top-25 defenses, including 5 of the top 10. UW has to play two of the top-10 defenses for its last two games of the regular season. And UW’s next home game is against another top-25 defense: Penn State’s. Wisconsin has a top-10 defense but they aren’t in the top-25 overall (but they are close).
UW has already played 2 of the top-10 special teams units (Iowa and Purdue), plus a top-25 (Minnesota). And they will face two more of the top-25 special teams: Michigan State and Oregon.
No Big Ten team is in the top-25 in all three phases. Maryland, Rutgers, and Washington aren’t in the top-25 in any phase.
Week 9 Games
There are 9 games this week in the Big Ten. One Big Ten teams are off this week: Michigan State. UCLA is playing a non-conference opponent. Here’s a look at win projections for the week 9 games in the Big Ten.
VisitorESPN FPIMasseySP+HomeESPN FPIMasseySP+Nevada7%1%11%UCLA93%99%89%Illinois70%68%65%Maryland31%32%35%Michigan84%86%81%Rutgers16%14%19%Minnesota4%1%8%Indiana96%99%92%Northwestern30%16%36%Oregon70%84%64%Ohio State83%85%77%USC17%15%23%Purdue19%11%23%Penn State81%89%77%Washington13%29%30%Nebraska87%71%70%Wisconsin43%20%35%Iowa57%80%65%There is agreement in all of these games. The exception is the UW-Purdue game. ESPN’s FPI has Purdue as the favorite, but Massey and SP+ favor UW.
Northwestern is ranked but still an underdog at Oregon. Will Oregon’s new offensive coordinator get that offense playing better, even though they will be missing Dante Moore? And let’s not forget that Northwestern’s OC is very familiar with playing in Eugene (Chip Kelley).
The Michigan-Rutgers game is quite the contrast. Rutgers’ offense is the best unit on that team, but they will be going up against a top-10 defense. On the other side, Michigan’s offense has been struggling, but they will be going up against one of the worst defenses in FBS.
According to ESPN’s FPI, Washington is not favored in any of their remaining games. They give UW the best chance against Michigan State game, 48.2%; that is up from 44.8% a couple of weeks ago. Massey does give UW a 68% chance to beat Michigan State, but UW is the underdog in the other games.
Final Notes
Maryland’s game this weekend will be the first since Coach Mike Locksley was fired. Could Maryland play better, especially at home, with their interim coach, Aazaar Abdul-Rahim? That is certainly a possibility, especially against a team like Illinois which has already lost to Purdue.
Indiana is a heavy favorite over Minnesota. But Minnesota just beat Iowa. Are the Golden Gophers not getting enough credit?
Michigan State has lost 6 games in a row. They are off this weekend so they’ll have a chance to regroup. They’ll need to since they face their rival, Michigan, in Ann Arbor next, followed by home games against Washington and Oregon. At the beginning of the season, those 3 games would have looked like sure losses-but the Spartans may have a shot if they can get better (and healthier) over the next week.
Penn State is on a 4-game losing streak. If they can’t get a win over Purdue this weekend, then that streak may continue in Seattle the following weekend.
UCLA looks like they could make the Big Ten Championship game in their first season under Coach Chesney. They have a couple of tricky road games (at Minnesota and at Michigan), but they could possibly lose one of those and still make it. In two and a half weeks Northwestern will be at Ohio State; that game could decide if either team can make the Big Ten Championship game; whoever loses is probably out.
Nebraska is not ranked by either of the major polls, but is a top-25 team in several of the other rankings. Are they a top-25 team? Obviously if they lose to UW this weekend they won’t be ranked. But it isn’t clear that a win over Washington would move them up. But, next week the CFP rankings will be the ones to watch instead, and who knows how they will rank Nebraska. For Nebraska, it should be their final two games which will answer the question since they will host Ohio State and then travel to Iowa.
UW has 5 games. They will need to win two of those games to be bowl eligible. Losing Landen Hatchett for the rest of the season did not help, but if the QB play can improve, then getting two more wins is very possible. Obviously the question is whether that improved play will come from Elijah Brown or Demond Williams-or a combination of the two.