Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Prediction 2026: Eric Bieniemy Is Back, and So Is the Chiefs QB’s Ceiling

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Patrick Mahomes Fantasy Prediction 2026:

Patrick Mahomes enters the 2026 fantasy football season coming off a late-season ACL tear, but virtually every health report out of Kansas City has been a positive one this summer. At this point, his recovery is no longer the primary concern for fantasy managers, something we would have never guessed to be the case when he went down.

Should You Draft Patrick Mahomes in Fantasy Football?

As of early September, Mahomes is going off the board in PFN’s Free Fantasy Mock Draft Simulator with an ADP of 105.6, and the PFN rank between our fantasy experts Jason Katz and Kyle Soppe has him at the number 111 overall prospect. That comes out to QB14, with a projected average of 15.85 points per game.

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That’s a bit of a low ranking for Mahomes, honestly. In the last two seasons, he finished outside the top 10 among quarterbacks in fantasy football scoring, but he was still QB12 in 2024 and QB11 in 2025. I think he’s going to benefit from Eric Bieniemy taking over as the offensive coordinator again. He put together some really good seasons earlier in his career with Bieniemy as the offensive coordinator.

You’d have to go back to when Matt Nagy was the offensive coordinator to find a bit of a dip from Mahomes, but arguably Mahomes’ “prime” came when Bieniemy was calling the offense. I think that return to familiarity is going to be huge for him.

He has some solid weapons. There are some questions there, but Kenneth Walker in the run game, I think, is going to take a lot of pressure off Mahomes. That’s something he didn’t really have last year. There was a lot of pressure on him to perform, and defenses didn’t respect that element of the run game. Now that you have Kenneth Walker in the mix, that’s something teams are going to have to keep an eye out for.

You have Travis Kelce, who’s on a slight decline but still producing at a very high level. You have Rashee Rice, who’s shown that when he’s healthy, he’s a legit WR1. Xavier Worthy maybe hasn’t lived up to the expectations of being a 1st-round pick, but he’s still a solid contributor. There are pieces on that offense who can contribute, and you’re bringing in that familiarity of Mahomes when he was at his fantasy peak with Bieniemy as the offensive coordinator.

I’m taking Mahomes as the QB14, and I’m not necessarily rushing to make him my starting quarterback in fantasy football. I think it’s definitely safe to draft somebody else ahead of him. If you go for somebody with a higher boom-or-bust rate, somebody like Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams, and you can get Mahomes as your backup, I think that’s tremendous value. I really do think Mahomes can end up being a top 10 QB again in fantasy.

With that ADP of 105.6 and that rank of QB14, I’m definitely taking a shot at Mahomes. Plus, it’s Mahomes. Say what you want about the scheme, but he’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL today. If there’s anybody I’m going to take a chance on, it’s going to be Mahomes. I’m definitely buying at his current ADP.

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Patrick Mahomes’ Week 1 Fantasy Outlook

Analysis provided by PFN Analyst Kyle Soppe.

Mahomes faced this elite defense once last season, and Andy Reid made it pretty clear as to how he wanted to attack: 45 pass attempts and 14 rushes (one of which came from Mahomes).

They didn’t bring in Kenneth Walker III to be a one-dimensional offense, and even if the long-term goal is to put their fate in the hands of their future Hall of Fame QB, it’s fair to assume we don’t see that in September.

If you drafted Mahomes, you’re playing Mahomes. There are a ton of players in this league where I’m happy to be a week late to starting rather than a week early, but this isn’t one of those situations. The matchup is clearly difficult, but you’ve given Andy Reid all summer to scheme and that’s something I’m happy to bet on.

Week 1, 2025: 45 opportunities (pass + rush) with a pass and a rush TD

Week 1, 2024: 10.4 yards per pass attempt

Week 1, 2023: 45 opportunities with a pair of pass TD

Week 1, 2022: 9.2 yards per pass attempt

Week 1, 2021: 9.4 yards per pass attempt (4 total TD)

I think you get the idea. If you like Reid off a bye like so many do, isn’t Week 1 effectively off of a handful of byes?

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Where Mahomes Ranks Among 2026 Quarterbacks

Want to dive in more? PFN’s Complete PPR Quarterback Rankings are updated weekly.

This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.

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